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Mid-Day Report: Swissy and Yen Firm in Quite TradingSwiss Franc and Japanese yen remain firm but momentum is diminishing mildly as we're approaching year end. Risk aversion is supporting both currencies somewhat. China PBoC raised interest rate charges banks on some funding facilities. The one-year refinancing rate was raised by 0.52% to 3.85%. Also, the rediscount rate was raised by 0.45% to 2.25%. This came rise after PboC raised deposit and lending rates by a quarter-point over the weekend. Reactions to the news is so far mild. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 81.84; (P) 82.34; (R1) 82.87; More. USD/JPY continues to consolidate above 81.81 temporary low for the moment and intraday bias remains neutral. Stronger recovery might be seen but upside should be limited by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 83.01) and bring fall resumption. As noted before, whole rebound from 80.29 should have finished at 84.49 already. Below 81.81 will target a test on 80.29 low. |
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| Special Report |
2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook: US - A Shift from Monetary to Fiscal StimulusThemes dominated the global FX markets this year will remain in focus in 2011. For much of the time, US economic recovery and Fed's addition of QE were affecting USD's movement. QE2 will expire in June 2011 and therefore the market will find no clues on what's next in coming few months. In our opinion, extension of Bush-era rate cuts would boost US economic growth in coming 2 years. Together with signs of recovery over the past few months, the Fed will not need to extend unconventional measures as QE2 expires. Yet, the Fed will still keep the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and maintain a dovish tone throughout the year. Stronger economic growth and an end to QE should be supportive for US dollar. In the Eurozone, sovereign crisis in peripheral economies may have further to run. We expect the euro will decline against the dollar in 1H11 before recovery seen thereafter. Break-up of the 16-nation region has been a hot topic this year. Indeed, we believe such worry is overdone. However, member countries will have a tough year in 2011. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, next Ichimoku & Candlestick Trade Idea, and Elliott Wave Trade Ideas update will resume on 3 Jan 2011. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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