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Daily Report: RBA on Hold, BoC NextFX markets are generally steady in range for the moment. No new decision was made in the meeting of EU finance ministers overnight. There were detailed discussion with IMF chief Strauss-Kahn and it's believed that IMF has pushed for an increase in the EUR 750b crisis fund but got no support from the Eurogroup. Also, there was no decision on immediate bailout of Portugal and Spain. Focus will turn to Irish Parliament vote on the 2011 budget which is expected to include EUR 6b savings. The first tranche of the EUR 85b bailout fund will be triggered once the budget is approved. However, the majority os the leading party is thin and the consequence of failing to pass the budget could be disastrous to Ireland and spread contagion to other Eurozone countries. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9855; (P) 0.9890; (R1) 0.9933; More Touching of 0.9850 minor support suggests that a temporary top is formed at 0.9936 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidations could be seen first but in case of deeper retreat, downside is expected to be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9778) and bring another rise. Above 0.9936 will target a test on 1.0181 high. Break will confirm up trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 0.8770 to 1.0181 from 0.9536 at 1.0408. |
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| Special Reports |
RBA Left Policy Rate At 4.75%The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. There were few surprises from the accompanying statement and the central bank sent no signal on when the next rate hike will be. Yet, it continued to warn of the high level of commodity prices and the effect on investment and incomes. The RBA did not show any concerns about the disappointing GDP growth in 3Q10, suggesting it remains confident toward the country's economic outlook. We retain our views the next rate hike will be in 1Q11, probably March. BOC And BOE Likely To Leave Rate Unchanged In DecemberWe expect the BOC will leave the policy rate unchanged at 1% in December. Economic growth since the 3rd quarter has missed expectations while inflation through September has been subdued. Concerning global economic developments, debt crisis in peripheral European economies suggests policymakers would remain cautious in adjusting monetary policies. |
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 82.10Although the greenback has rebounded after intra-day fall to 82.34, above 82.75-80 is needed to signal a temporary low has been formed and bring rebound to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 83.00), otherwise, near term downside risk remains for the decline from 84.41 top to extend one more fall to 82.10 (50% projection of 84.40-82.53 measuring from 83.03). Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9770Although the greenback has rebounded after intra-day fall to 0.9795 and test of intra-day resistance at 0.9834 is likely, above yesterday's high of 0.9873 is needed to signal the fall from last week's high of 1.0067 has ended at 0.9726 yesterday and bring test of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.9898) but reckon resistance at 0.9951 would hold from here. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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