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Daily Report: Euro Vulnerable ahead of Spain Bond Auction, Swissy Firm ahead of SNBEuro stabilizes a bit after yesterday's steep selloff on renewed concern of sovereign debt crisis, but remains soft against dollar and swissy franc. The common currency will face another test today as Spain is going to raise a maximum of EUR 3b of 10-year and 15-year bonds, just a day after Moody's warned of downgrade of the country's Aa1 rating. Also, European leaders will gather in Brussels to discuss a permanent crisis management system beyond 2013 when then current temporary facility expires. There have been much talk about expanding the existing EUR 750b funds as well as creation of E-bond, just as there are as much disagreement among leaders. In any case, Euro is vulnerable to making new record low against Swiss Franc again, which a break of 1.3164 support in EUR/USD would likely send the pair through 1.3 psychological level again. |
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EUR/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2748; (P) 1.2800; (R1) 1.2842; More EUR/CHF recovers mildly after making new record low at 1.2757 but still intraday bias remains on the downside with 1.2913 minor resistance intact. Sustained trading below 1.2765 key support level will confirm resumption of larger down trend and should target 61.8% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.2366 next. On the upside, above 1.2913 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3204 resistance holds. |
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Appreciation In Franc Diminishes The Need Of SNB Rate HikeSwitzerland is one of the healthiest nations in Europe in terms of fiscal positions. Unlike many of its neighboring Eurozone nations, the country does not need to implement fiscal-consolidative measures next year and the government even revised its budget forecast to a surplus of 0.25% of GDP in 2010, up from mild deficit previously projected. The well-being in fiscal stability has attracted foreign investments and sent Swiss franc higher. Strength in the franc, together with sovereign concerns in peripheral economies in the Eurozone, has real impact on economic growth. GDP growth eased for 2 consecutive quarters in 3Q10 as exports contracted significantly. Risks on growth are to the downside in coming quarters and the SNB should keep the 3-monh LIBOR target range unchanged at 0-0.75% in December. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5645Yesterday's selloff signals recent entire correction from 1.5485 has ended at 1.5911 and bearishness remains for a test of 1.5512 support, break there would signal the decline from 1.6300 top has resumed and bring retest of 1.5485, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below this support and risk has increased for a rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3290Although the single currency fell marginally to 1.3207 (yesterday's low was 1.3210), as euro has recovered, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and retracement to 1.3285-93 (previous support and current level of the Kijun-Sen) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring another decline later towards 1.3182. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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