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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Sharply Lower after NFP Disappointment, Unemployment Rate Jumped to 9.8%Non-Farm Payroll showed a mere 39k expansion in the US job market in November comparing to expectation of 142k as gains in private jobs was disappointingly at 50k only. Unemployment rate also jumped sharply from 9.6% to 9.8%. Dollar is sharply lower against most major currencies, except Canadian dollar, after the release. Technically, note that sharp fall in USD/JPY and USD/CHF indicate that recent rise has reversed. AUD/USD's strong rebound also suggests that the larger rally might be resuming. Even though EUR/USD and GBP/USD are still kept below key near term resistance, the greenback now looks quite vulnerable. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 83.41; (P) 83.88; (R1) 84.29; More. USD/JPY's strong break of 82.78 support suggests that whole rebound from 80.29 is possibly completed at 83.49 already. Intraday bias is back to the downside for 61.8% retracement of 80.29 to 84.39 at 81.85 first. Break will target a test on 80 psychological level again. On the upside, break of 84.39 resistance is needed to confirm rebound resumption. Otherwise, risk will now remain on the downside. |
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ECB Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged, Extends Liquidity Supply DurationAs expected, the ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%. Moreover, the central bank delayed exit of non-standard measures and continued to keep providing unlimited liquidity to the market through 1Q11. The euro and bond markets rallied ahead of the meeting amid speculations that the central bank will purchase peripheral debts. However, President Trichet declined to comment on the issue but mentioned that 'the Securities Market Program (SMP) is ongoing, I repeat - ongoing'. |
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| Forex Trade Ideas - Candlesticks and Elliott Wave | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Buy at 0.8380Although the single currency has continued to move higher, near term loss of momentum should prevent sharp move beyond resistance at 0.8515/20 and risk has increased for a retreat, below 0.8447 would bring weakness to 0.8400, however, as low has been formed at 0.8334, downside should be limited to 0.8380 and bring another rebound later. Looking ahead, next upside target would be retracement of the fall from 0.8941 to 0.8565/70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8941 to 0.8334) but resistance at 0.8595/00 would cap upside. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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