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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Pares Loss after Retail Sales, FOMC NextDollar pares some losses in early US session after stronger than expected data. Headline retail sales rose 0.8% in November versus consensus of 0.6%. Ex--auto sales rose impressively by 1.2% versus expectation of 0.7%. Headline PPI moderated less than expected to 3.5% yoy in November while core PPI dropped to 1.2% yoy, inline with expectation. But after all, recovery in the greenback is so far mild and dollar is still vulnerable to more downside. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9600; (P) 0.9725; (R1) 0.9802; More. USD/CHF drops further to as low as 0.9595 in early US session and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.9547 support first. As noted before, recovery from 0.9462 has completed with three waves up to 1.0065 and fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the medium term down trend. Break of 0.9547 will target another low below 0.9462. On the upside, above 0.9689 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited well below 0.9914 resistance and bring fall resumption. |
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FOMC Meeting To Be A Quiet Event. Tax Cuts Diminish QE3 PossibilityThe FOMC meeting this week will be a quiet one as policymakers will leave the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, reiterating that policy rate will stay 'exceptionally low' for an 'extended period'. After the Fed announced in November to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of 2Q11, a series of events happened and may change the Fed's monetary policy outlook. The most important one was President Obama's agreement on tax cuts which, if successful in boosting economic recovery, may reduce the need of further QE. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9685Although the greenback has fallen again after brief recovery, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9575 (100% projection of 1.0067 to 0.9726 measuring from 0.9916) and risk has increased for a rebound but renewed selling interest should emerge below intra-day resistance at 0.9690 and the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9704) should hold, bring another decline later. Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Hold short entered at 1.0110Despite yesterday's fall to 1.0028, as the greenback has rebounded again, suggesting further consolidation would take place but as long as yesterday's high at 1.0109 holds, bearishness remains for another fall to 1.0002, however, a break of previous support at 0.9977 is needed to confirm downtrend has resumed in wave (iii) for retest of previous chart point at 0.9931 (wave iii bottom) and then 0.9900. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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