Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 12-21-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Canadian Dollar Volatile after Data, Euro and Sterling Soft

Some volatility is seen in Canadian dollar in early US session. The loonie is first shot down by lower than expected inflation data which saw CPI moderated much more than expected to 2.0% yoy while core CPI also dropped to 1.4% yoy. Nevertheless, some support is seen right after better than expected retail sales data as headline sales rose strongly by 0.9% while ex-auto sales rose 0.9% in October. After all, USD/CAD is kept below yesterday's high and would probably stay sideway for a little more time.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9612; (P) 0.9666; (R1) 0.9701; More.

USD/CHF's sharp fall today argues that recent decline from 1.0065 might be resuming. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside and break of 0.9557 will target 0.9462 low and then 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349. On the upside, touching of 0.9719 resistance will bring more consolidations first. But after all, even in case of stronger rebound, upside should be limited below 61.8% retracement of 1.0065 to 0.9557 at 0.9871 and bring another fall.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Oct 0.60% -- -0.10%
00:30 AUD RBA Minutes Dec -- --
03:30 JPY BoJ Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Oct -0.20% -0.20% -0.80%
07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Jan 5.4 5.7 5.5
07:15 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Nov 1.93B 1.88B 2.10B 2.05B
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Nov 22.8B 16.8B 9.8B 8.6B
12:00 CAD CPI M/M Nov 0.10% 0.30% 0.40%
12:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Nov 2.00% 2.30% 2.40%
12:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Nov 0.00% 0.20% 0.40%
12:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Nov 1.40% 1.60% 1.80%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Oct 0.80% 0.50% 0.60%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Oct 0.90% 0.70% 0.40%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9660

As the greenback has remained under pressure after breaking indicated minor support at 0.9595/00, adding credence to our view that the correction from last week's low at 0.9558 has ended at 0.9722 yesterday and bearishness remains for a retest of this level, break there would confirm the decline from 1.0067 top has resumed and extend weakness towards 0.9500/10

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 1.0245

Although the greenback surged after breaking indicated resistance at 1.1047 and the rebound from 1.0001 may extend gain to 1.0245/50, as broad outlook remains consolidative, a possible triangle is unfolding, reckon resistance at 1.0286 should hold, bring retreat later. A break of yesterday's low at 1.0103 would signal the rebound from 1.0001 has ended and bring weakness to 1.0060 and possibly test of this support.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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