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Daily Report: Dollar Weakens as Treasury Stabilized, Aussie Jumps on Strong Employment DataDollar weakens again as the bond markets stabilized overnight after weak but not disastrous 10 year note auction. Price actions in EUR/USD this week are corrective looking so far, so are that in USD/CHF. GBP/USD even continued to strengthen. The developments are still bearish for the greenback. The only exception in the dollar pairs is USD/JPY which is back pressing last week's high of 84.39. The $13b auction of 30 year bond today would likely provide the guidance on whether bond yield has peaked in near term. And, should USD/JPY fails at current level, we would likely see dollar sellers come back into the market to push the greenback further lower again other major currencies. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9746; (P) 0.9801; (R1) 0.9849; More AUD/USD recovers strongly after drawing support from 4 hours 55 EMA but upside is still limited well below 0.9964. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. But after all, outlook remains unchanged. That is, fall from 1.0181 should have completed with three waves down to 0.9536 already. Rebound from there is still expected to continue and above 0.9964 will target a retest on 1.0181 high first. |
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RBNZ Left OCR Unchanged. Future Rate Hikes LimitedThe RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 3% in December as domestic economic growth was slower than previously expected. The central bank expects interest rates will rise to a 'more limited extent over the next 2 years than signaled in the September Statement'. In the latest set of economic forecasts, the RBNZ revised lower GDP forecasts for 2010/11 while upgrading growth in 2011/12. We view the statement as more dovish that the previous one and the schedule of tightening may be pushed later. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Hold short entered at 1.3320Despite this morning's rise to 1.3323, as the single currency has retreated, retaining our bearishness and consolidation with downside bias remains for test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3252), break there would confirm top has been formed and bring weakness towards 1.3205/10, however, below there is needed to signal the fall from 1.3452 has resumed for test of 1.3180 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 83.40As the greenback has finally retreated after rising to 84.31 yesterday, suggesting consolidation below said resistance would take place and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 83.42) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around there and bring another rise later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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