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Daily Report: Dollar Resuming Decline after Moody's Warning on Tax Cut ExtensionDollar was sharply lower overnight after Moody's comment that the tax cut extension, if approved, would be negative to US's Aaa credit rating as it will "adversely affect" the budget deficit unless there are "offsetting measures". Moody's noted that "the negative effects on government finance are likely to outweigh the positive effects of higher economic growth." Also, there were additional pressure for the greenback as stocks rose on risk appetite while 10 year yield failed to sustain gain and dropped sharply from intra-session high of 3.371% back to close at 3.283%. There is little sign of stabilization in greenback's selloff in Asia session as risk appetite remains firm and dollar is vulnerable to more downside ahead in a busy day. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9867; (P) 0.9925; (R1) 1.0020; More AUD/USD's strong rise and break of 0.9964 confirms that rise from 0.9536 has resumed. Intraday bias is back to the upside and further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9536 to 0.9964 from 0.9752 at 1.0180, which is close to 1.0181 high. As noted before, correction from 1.0181 should have completed with three waves down to 0.9536 already and rise from there is possibly resuming the whole rally from 0.8066. Break of 1.0181 will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.8770 to 1.0181 from 0.9536 at 1.0408. On the downside, below 0.9752 support will dampen this view and suggest that correction from 1.0181 is going to extend deeper instead. |
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FOMC Meeting To Be A Quiet Event. Tax Cuts Diminish QE3 PossibilityThe FOMC meeting this week will be a quiet one as policymakers will leave the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, reiterating that policy rate will stay 'exceptionally low' for an 'extended period'. After the Fed announced in November to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of 2Q11, a series of events happened and may change the Fed's monetary policy outlook. The most important one was President Obama's agreement on tax cuts which, if successful in boosting economic recovery, may reduce the need of further QE. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9750Yesterday's selloff after breaking indicated support at 0.9756 (now turned into resistance) signals the decline from 1.0067 top is still in progress and further weakness to 0.9600/10 is likely, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to previous support at 0.9588 and reckon 0.9575 (100% projection of 1.0067 to 0.9726 measuring from 0.9916) would hold and bring rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3340Yesterday's rally on active buying by Asian central banks signals the correction from 1.3452 has ended at 1.3164 last week and a retest of this level is underway, however, break there is needed to confirm early rise from 1.2969 low has resumed and extend gain to 1.3471-74 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4283 to 1.2969 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3786-1.2969) but reckon previous support at 1.3526 would hold. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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