Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 12-28-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Sharply Lower after Solid 2-Year Notes Demand, More Bond Auctions ahead

Dollar is sharply lower this week, with particular weakness in USD/JPY, as dragged down by falling treasury yields. Yesterday's auction of $35b 2-year notes in US attracted solid demand, with bid-to-cover ratios at 3.71 times, highest in more than two years and versus 3.51 times over the last four sales. Markets are eyeing today's $35b auction in five year notes and tomorrow's $29b in seven year notes with speculations on strong demand too. Investors are buying bonds and selling dollars ahead of these two auctions on anticipation of some down side in yields. Meanwhile, technically, yield on 10 year and 30 year bonds also show sign that last week's recovery was over and yields might dip ahead in near term, thus, giving some pressure on the greenback.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 82.64; (P) 82.81; (R1) 82.96; More.

USD/JPY drops further to as low as 82.36 today so far and is pressing mentioned 82.33/83 support zone. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment and decisive break of 82.33 support will confirm that whole rebound from 80.29 is cover. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to have another test on 80 psychological level. On the upside, above 82.95 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 84.49 resistance is needed to confirm rebound resumption. Otherwise, near term outlook will be neutral.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Nov -0.40% 0.30% -0.40%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Nov 5.10% 5.10% 5.10%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Dec -0.40% -0.40% -0.50%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Nov -0.50% -0.50% -0.60%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Nov P 1.00% 0.90% -2.00%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Nov P 5.80% 5.50% 4.30%
23:50 JPY Retail Sales Y/Y Nov 1.30% 0.40% -0.20%
07:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Nov 1.63 -- 1.72 1.71
14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Oct -0.18% 0.59%
15:00 USD Consumer Confidence Dec 56.3 54.1
Forex Trade Ideas

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, next Ichimoku & Candlestick Trade Idea, and Elliott Wave Trade Ideas update will resume on 3 Jan 2011.

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

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