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Daily Report: Risk Appetite Firm ahead of Non-Farm PayrollRisk sentiments are generally firm as markets are awaiting a solid Non-farm payroll report from US today. The report is expected to show 142k expansion in in job market in November. Unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 9.6%. ADP private job report showed more than expected growth of 93k November. Employment component of ISM manufacturing index also stayed steady at 57.5. The employment component of ISM services is not released yet. Four week average of initial jobless claims improved from end of October's 457k to end of November's 431k while continuing claims also improved mildly. The leading indicators generally support a solid job report from US today, probably showing an increase in private jobs from October's 159k, which offset by a mild decrease in government employments. ISM services and factory orders will also be released today. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 83.41; (P) 83.88; (R1) 84.29; More. USD/JPY is still staying in tight range below 84.39 and intraday bias remains neutral. Consolidations from 84.39 could continue with another fall but downside is expected to be contained by 82.78, 38.2% retracement of 80.29 to 84.39 at 82.82 and bring another rise. Above 84.39 will target 85.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 94.97 to 80.29 at 85.89) next. However, decisive break of 82.78 will argue that rebound from 80.29 is possibly finished and will put focus back to 80 psychological level. |
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ECB Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged, Extends Liquidity Supply DurationAs expected, the ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%. Moreover, the central bank delayed exit of non-standard measures and continued to keep providing unlimited liquidity to the market through 1Q11. The euro and bond markets rallied ahead of the meeting amid speculations that the central bank will purchase peripheral debts. However, President Trichet declined to comment on the issue but mentioned that 'the Securities Market Program (SMP) is ongoing, I repeat - ongoing'. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9970Yesterday's selloff to 0.9888 adds credence to our view that a temporary top has been formed at 1.0067 earlier this week and although price has rebounded from there, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9972) would attract renewed selling interest and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3100As the single currency found decent demand at 1.3060 overnight and staged a strong rebound from there, suggesting near term upside bias remains for the rise from 1.2969 temporary low to bring a stronger retracement of recent decline and above 1.3247/50 would extend gain towards 1.3280/85 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3786 to 1.2969) but reckon resistance at 1.3302 would cap upside, bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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