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Daily Report: Risk Appetite Recedes Further on Strong China DataDollar and yen stage strong rebound today as Asian stocks pared back much of Monday's gain and closed sharply lower. Selloff was triggered by stronger than expected data from China which saw CPI jumped to 18 month high of 2.8% in April, new lending rose to CNY 774b which beat market estimate and property prices jumped by 12.8% to new record high. The data argues that effect of recent measures to cool inflation and growth was disappointing and raised speculations of more tightening from China. Nikkei is down -1.14% today while Shanghai composite dropped -1.9%. Crude oil remains in tight range below 78 level. |    |
| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 117.45; (P) 119.86; (R1) 121.69; More. EUR/JPY's sharp fall from 122.27 suggests that a temporary top is formed there and turns bias neutral. While the stronger than expected rebound from 110.69 dampens our immediate bearish view, upside is still limited below 122.35 support turned resistance. Structurally, such rebound from 110.69 could still be viewed as a correction. Below 117.39 minor support will suggest that such correction is completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 110.69 low. On the upside, above 122.27 will bring another rise and will put focus back to whether EUR/JPY could sustain momentum to get through 127.88 key resistance. |
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Market Reaction to EU-IMF's Stability Package and ECB's Easing MeasuresMarket reaction to EU-IMF and ECB's measures to contain European sovereign crisis and to arrest euro's selloff was positive, albeit lacking momentum. The euro surged initially, breaking above 1.3 against the dollar and 120 against Japanese yen. However, the rally lost steam as ECB's accommodative stance might delay the first rate hike and investors worried the Eurozone will experience a double-dip recession as long as fiscal problems are unresolved. EU and ECB Announced Tremendous Measures to Stem Debt CrisisIn addition to approving the loans to Greece, EU finance ministers announced a plan worth 750B euro to prevent Greek sovereign crisis from spreading and the euro from free-falling. The ECB also announced to intervene the public and private bond markets. The EU stated that the comprehensive package of measures is to preserve financial stability in Europe and it includes a 500B-euro European Financial Stabilization mechanism of which 440B euro will come from 16 member countries in the Eurozone which the remaining 60B euro will come from European Commission's emergency funding. The IMF has agreed to contribute 250B euro in the package. |
| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas |
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 92.00Although dollar retreated after rising to 93.54 yesterday and consolidation below this level would take place, reckon renewed buying interest would emerge around the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 92.00) and bring rebound later but break of intra-day resistance at 93.39 is needed to signal the rise from 87.95 low has resumed for retest of 93.54, then towards 93.90/00. Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.1050As the greenback maintained a firm undertone after staging a strong rebound from 1.0924 yesterday, suggesting the correction from 1.1245 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain towards 1.1184 resistance area, however, a sustained breach above there is needed to confirm and signal upmove has resumed for retest of 1.1245 later, otherwise, choppy consolidation would continue. | ||
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Fundamental Highlights
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