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Mid-Day Report: Canadian Dollar Lifted by Solid GDP Data ahead of Tomorrow's BoC DecisionCanadian dollar strengthens in early US session after release of stronger than expected GDP data. March GDP grew 0.6% mom, above expectation of 0.5% and stronger than Feb's 0.3%. Q1 GDP annualized also rose more than expected by 6.%. IPPI rose 0.3% mom while RMPI rose 1.7% in April, both are above expectations. Canadian dollar is given a lift by the data, ahead of tomorrow's BoC rate decision where markets expect BoC to be the first G7 central bank to start tightening. |    |
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USD/CAD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0473; (P) 1.0515; (R1) 1.0588; More. USD/CAD's fall from 1.0851 is still in progress and further fall is expected towards 61.8% retracement of 1.0109 to 1.0851 at 1.0392 and below. But at this point, we'd still expect strong support above near term rising trend line (now at 1.0250) and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.0561 minor resistance will indicate that pull back from 1.0851 is over and flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting this high first. |
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RBA To Pause In June With Traders Pricing In Chances Of Rate CutThe RBA is most likely to keep the cash unchanged at 4.5% after taking it up for 6 times since October 2009 from an unprecedentedly low level at 3%. At the accompanying statement after May's meeting, RBA governor Glens Stevens hinted a pause in June as he stated that the rate hikes represent 'a significant adjustment from the very expansionary settings reached a year ago' and have brought interest rates for most borrowers to 'around average levels'. Furthermore, recent macroeconomic developments, including sovereign crisis in the Eurozone and its impacts on global economic outlook, heightened sense of risk aversion and moderation in domestic economic data in Australia, have also suggested the central bank to be on hold. Risk Appetite Improved Depsite Spain's Downgrade. Sovereign Risk LingersMarket sentiment seemed to have eased after weeks of selloff in the financial market. Stocks and most commodities recorded gains over the week. However, sovereign-debt crisis in the Eurozone is yet to be resolved and we got Spain being downgraded on Friday. BOC to be the First G7 Central Banks to Hike RateAfter the Bank of Canada removed the conditional statement at the meeting on April 20, there had been strong expectation of a rate hike in June. The market had in fact priced in a full +25 bps increase shortly after the meeting. However, the hopes faded as Eurozone's sovereign crisis escalated. With concerns over a double dip economic recovery, the bet on a June rate hike vs another month of unchanged policy is now 50-50. Therefore, the meeting outcome next Monday will be crucial for future economic development as well as the outlook for Canadian dollar. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.4585As the British pound has edged higher after intra-day rebound from 1.4360, suggesting consolidation with mild upside bias is for gain towards 1.4585/90, however, as top has been formed at 1.4612 earlier, reckon upside would be limited and this resistance should continue to hold, bring retreat later. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 91.00As the greenback has eased after trading below intra-day resistance at 91.63, suggesting near term consolidation would continue and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 91.12) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 91.00) and bring another upmove. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold long entered at 112.00Although the single currency slipped to as low as 111.35 last Friday, as price just held above indicated stop-loss level at 111.30 and staged a rebound from there, retaining our bullishness for further gain to 114.00. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 0.8380As the Australian dollar has eased after Friday's rise to 0.8552, suggesting consolidation would be seen with initial mild downside bias, however, as we keeping our view that wave v of a leg has possibly ended at 0.8066, reckon 0.8370/80 would attract renewed buying interest and bring another rebound later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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