Monday, May 17, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-17-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Retreats Mildly as Markets Stabilize

Dollar retreats mildly as European stocks recover from early losses while US equities also open slightly higher. There is little reaction to poor manufacturing data from US which saw Empire State Manufacturing index dropped sharply from 31.9 to 19.1 in May. TIC report showed net buying of long term US securities rose sharply to $140.5b in March, largest number since last November. The data can be viewed as a sign of increased demand for US investments on optimism for economic recovery, as well as worry on problems in other parts of the world, including the fiscal debt woes in Eurozone.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1210; (P) 1.1273; (R1) 1.1396; More.

With 1.1259 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside and recent rally is expected to continue towards 161.8% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1673 next. On the downside, below 1.1259 minor support will indicate that a temporary top is formed and bring consolidations. But pull back should be contained above 1.0922 support and bring rise resumption.

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Special Report

Market Reaction Indicates Skepticism about Stabilization Fund, Concerns over Growth Slowdown. Yield Spread Helped by ECB Purchases

It's been a week after announcement of the EU/IMF 750B euro Stabilization Fund and ECB's pledge to buy public and private bonds as well as reintroduction of several refinancing operations. While such moves may alleviate panic in bonds and stocks that happened in previous weeks, the majority in the market does not believe the actions are effective to contain fiscal problems in the Eurozone.

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.1135

Despite intra-day resumption of recent upmove to 1.1265, as the greenback has retreated from there on profit-taking, suggesting a minor top is formed there and correction to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1192) would be seen, break would bring retracement to intra-day support at 1.1152, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.1135 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0924 to 1.1265 and the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.1100) should hold, bring another rise.

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.4690

Although the British pound fell to as low as 1.4496, as cable has rebounded after holding above recent low at 1.4475, suggesting a minor low is formed and consolidation would be seen with mild upside bias for retracement to 1.4655/60 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4917 to 1.4496), however, resistance at 1.4720 (previous support turned resistance) should hold and bring another decline later. Break of said support would bring retest of 1.4475, then towards 1.4410/20.

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Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.1300

As dollar has continued to move lower after retreating from 1.1446, suggesting a minor top has been formed there and retracement to 1.1299 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1060 to 1.1446) is likely, however, support at 1.1265 (previous resistance turned support) should hold and bring another rise later.

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.4505

Cable's firmness after rebounding from 1.4249 suggests a temporary low has been formed there and correction to 1.4500/05 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4917 to 1.4249) is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring retreat later.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

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