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Mid-Day Report: Pound Reversed Gains on Dovish BoE, Consolidations ElsewhereWhile gold extends the uptrend and makes another record high of 1245.4 today, the forex markets are rather quiet. US trade deficit widened to one year high of -$40.4b in March. Both exports and imports rose rapidly, jumping 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, which is consistent with global economic recovery. Canada trade surplus narrowed to CAD 0.3b in March which new housing price index rose 0.3% mom. Nevertheless, markets have little reaction to the data. |    |
| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.4780; (P) 1.4892; (R1) 1.5064; More Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as today's recovery was limited by 1.5053 resistance and the pair weakens again. On the downside, below 1.4719 minor support will reaffirm the case that rebound from 1.4475 is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low. On the upside, break of 1.5035 will bring another rise and put 1.5521 key resistance back into focus. |
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Pound's Rally Stalls as BOE Can't Rule Out the Possibility of Expanding the Asset Purchase PlanPound reverses early gains after BOE Governor Mervyn King delivered dovish comments at a press conference following release of the quarterly inflation report. Similar to February's outlook, policymakers forecast GDP growth will reach +3.5% by 2010 while inflation will stay below 2% target. The forecasts are based on the interest rate staying close to its record low of 0.5% this year and reaching 1.7% by the end of 2011. |
| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 1.1085Despite intra-day retreat to 1.1068, as the greenback found support just above the Ichimoku cloud top, retaining our bullishness and expect support at 1.1036 to continue to hold, bring another rise later. Above resistance at 1.1139 would extend gain from 1.0924 towards resistance at 1.1184, however, break there is needed to confirm correction from 1.1245 has ended and bring resumption of early upmove for an eventual retest of this resistance. Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5020Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.5046, as the British pound has retreated after faltering below resistance at 1.5054, adding credence to our view that further choppy consolidation within 1.4720-1.5054 range would take place in the near term and as long as said resistance holds, mild downside bias is seen for retreat towards the Kijun-Sen (now at1.4883) but break of 1.4861 support is needed to confirm the rebound from 1.4720 is over, then fall towards the lower Kumo (now at 1.4765) would follow. | ||
| Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas | ||
Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell at 119.30Euro's anticipated sharp retreat from 122.29 suggests the wave iv from 110.49 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 116.39 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 110.49 to 122.29) but break of 115.00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) is needed to confirm and bring wave v decline. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 0.8825Although aussie's retreat from 0.9078 turned out to be stronger than expected and weakness towards 0.8820/25 cannot be ruled out, if our view that low has been formed at 0.8711 is correct, downside would be limited and bring another rebound later. Above 0.9020/25 would signal pullback from 0.9078 has ended and bring test of this level, break there would confirm upmove from 0.8711 low has resumed for headway towards indicated resistance at 0.9155/65, break there would confirm c leg and wave (ii) has ended at 0.8711 and extend gain to 0.9250. | ||
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Fundamental Highlights
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