Monday, May 3, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 5-3-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar and Yen Climb as China Hike Reserve Ratio, Euro Soft Despite Greece Bailout

Dollar and yen rebound as the month starts on risk aversion after China announced to hike bank reserve ratios for the third time this year to curb lending. Effective on May 10, the RRR (reserve requirement ratio) will be raised to 17% for large banks and 15% for small and medium sized banks. The move is expected to drain out about CNY 300b in liquidly from the banking system. Also, Australian government proposed a new 40 percent tax on the booming profits of resource companies. Asians stocks, except Japan and China which are on holiday, are generally lower. Dollar and yen are lifted by risk aversion.

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Special Reports

Greece's Bailout Concluded. Short-term Relieved But Long-term Remained Uncertain

After a 3-month debate among EU leaders on whether and how to rescue the debt-ridden Greece from the risk of default, the EU Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU Commissioner, Olli Rehn, the ECB's president Jean-Claude Trichet and the Greek finance minister George Papaconstantinou announced on Sunday evening that , together with the IMF, a package of 110B euro will be provided to Greece for its funding needs over the next 3 years.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy at 1.0765

Although the greenback slipped to 1.0748 last Friday, as dollar found decent demand right at the Ichimoku cloud top and has rebounded, suggesting the correction from 1.0925 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5330

Despite last week's strong rebound from 1.5126 to 1.5390, the subsequent sharp retreat from there has revived our bearishness for another fall towards said support, however, break there

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0733; (P) 1.0789; (R1) 1.0833; More.

USD/CHF rebounds strongly to as high as 1.0846 so far today and the development suggests that a temporary low is in place at 1.0746 after USD/CHF draws support from 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is tuned neutral. On the upside, break of 1.0923 resistance will confirm that whole rally from 1.0434 has resumed and should target 100% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1200 next. On the downside, in case of another fall, we'd continue to expect strong support from 1.0699 to conclude the pull back from 1.0923 and bring rally resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDCHF 0.7894 0.7826 +68 +0.86%
EURNZD 1.8135 1.8278 -143 -0.79%
AUDCHF 1.0031 0.9958 +73 +0.73%
EURAUD 1.4276 1.4378 -102 -0.71%
CADCHF 1.0649 1.0584 +65 +0.61%

Last Updated: May 03 07:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD              
EUR              
JPY              
GBP              
CHF              
CAD              
AUD              

Last Updated: May 03 07:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:30 AUD House Price Index Q/Q Q1 4.80% 3.20% 5.20% 5.10%
7:30 CHF SVME-PMI Apr 64.5 65.5
7:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Apr F 61.3 61.3
8:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Apr F 57.5 57.5
12:30 USD Personal Income Mar 0.30% 0.00%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Mar 0.60% 0.30%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Mar 2.00% 1.80%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Mar 0.00% 0.00%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Mar 1.30% 1.30%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Apr 59.8 59.6
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Apr 74 75
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Mar -0.50% -1.30%
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