Monday, May 3, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-3-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Firm after Solid Data, Yen Reverses

Dollar remains firm in early US session after solid economic data. US personal spending rose 0.6% in March, matched expectation and was the best number in five months which personal income rose 0.3%. Headline PCE PCE accelerated from 1.8% yoy to 2.0% yoy. Core PCE, Fed's preferred price measure rose 1.3% yoy, unchanged from February's number. ISM manufacturing index rose more than expected to 60.4 in April, indicating that recovery in the manufacturing sector continues to gain momentum.

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Special Reports

RBA Preview: Rates to Rise Above Average Soon

The RBA will likely announce another rate hike of +25 bps at tomorrow's meeting, bringing the cash rate to 4.5%. Apart from stronger-than-expected CPI reading in 1Q10, other indicators suggested domestic demand is also surging rapidly. The RBA should adjust the reference that it's appropriate to bring interest rates closer to 'average' as the central bank will likely more to a more restrictive monetary stance. In the Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) to be released Friday, we expect upgrades both GDP and inflationary outlook.

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Greece's Bailout Concluded. Short-term Relieved But Long-term Remained Uncertain

After a 3-month debate among EU leaders on whether and how to rescue the debt-ridden Greece from the risk of default, the EU Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU Commissioner, Olli Rehn, the ECB's president Jean-Claude Trichet and the Greek finance minister George Papaconstantinou announced on Sunday evening that , together with the IMF, a package of 110B euro will be provided to Greece for its funding needs over the next 3 years.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 123.30

Although the single currency retreated after last week's brief rise to 125.97 on Friday, if our view that e leg of wave ii ended at 122.37 is correct, downside should be limited to minor support at 123.20/30 and bring another rebound later. Above said resistance would add credence to this view and bring test of 126.30, once this level is penetrated, this would suggest the wave iii has commenced for gain to 127.00.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Hold Long Entered at 0.9230

Despite intra-day brief fall to 0.9210 (in Australia), as aussie has rebounded from there, suggesting as long as this support holds, consolidation with upside bias remains and we are keeping our view that the 2nd c leg of wave (ii) has ended at 0.9135 last week.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 93.59; (P) 94.08; (R1) 94.34; More.

USD/JPY's retreat from 94.57 was contained at 93.82 and rebounds strongly. Focus is turned back to 94.68 high. Break there will confirm that whole rise from 88.13 has resumed and will target 100% projection of 84.81 to 93.74 from 88.13 at 97.06 next. On the downside, however, below 93.82 minor support will indicate that consolidations from 94.68 is still in progress and have started another down leg for 91.59 support.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDCHF 0.7894 0.7826 +68 +0.86%
EURNZD 1.8135 1.8278 -143 -0.79%
AUDCHF 1.0031 0.9958 +73 +0.73%
EURAUD 1.4276 1.4378 -102 -0.71%
CADCHF 1.0649 1.0584 +65 +0.61%

Last Updated: May 03 14:05 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD              
EUR              
JPY              
GBP              
CHF              
CAD              
AUD              

Last Updated: May 03 14:05 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD House Price Index Q/Q Q1 4.80% 3.20% 5.20% 5.10%
07:30 CHF SVME-PMI Apr 65.9 64.2 65.5
07:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Apr F 61.5 61.3 61.3
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Apr F 57.6 57.5 57.5
12:30 USD Personal Income Mar 0.30% 0.30% 0.00% 0.10%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Mar 0.60% 0.60% 0.30% 0.50%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Mar 2.00% 2.00% 1.80%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Mar 0.10% 0.00% 0.00%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Mar 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Apr 60.4 59.8 59.6
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Apr 78 74 75
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Mar 0.20% -0.50% -1.30%
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