Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-5-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Mid-Day Report: Euro Extends Weakness as Portugal's Rating May be Downgraded

Euro extends current decline as Moody's put Portugal's Aa2 debt rating on watch for a possible downgrade. The company's statement said that the rating action "reflects the recent deterioration of Portugal's public finances as well as the economy's long-term growth challenges." Also, "increased risk discrimination in the financial markets may raise Portugal's financing costs for some time to come." EUR/USD drops through 1.29 level while risk averse sentiments also send the greenback higher against other major currencies.

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Special Reports

ECB to Continue Gradul Stimulus Exit, Focus on Greece at Press Conference

The ECB is widely expected to maintain the main refinancing rate at 1% and leave its assessment on economic and inflationary outlook similar to previous meetings. The focus of the press conference will again be on Greece. While the related parties basically agreed on the terms of the 3-year loan totaling 110B euro, it will need to be approved by the parliament on May 7. There will likely be questions regarding contagion and collateral rules.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.9170

This week's euro-led selloff signals the wave (ii) decline from 0.9389 is still in progress and weakness towards 0.9030 cannot be ruled out, however, only break of support at 0.9001 would turn outlook bearish for stronger correction, otherwise, prospect of another rally remains

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Exit long entered at 123.00 and sell at 123.45

Euro's selloff on massive cross-buying in yen due to risk aversion has dampened our bullishness and suggest the wave (ii) is still in progress and may extend weakness to 121.70/80, however, reckon downside would be limited to 121.30/35 and support at 121.05 should hold.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2908; (P) 1.3061 (R1) 1.3140; More.

EUR/USD's fall is still in progress and reaches as low as 1.2882 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen to next target of 100% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3817 at 1.2682. Break there will target a retest on key support zone of 1.2329/2456. On the upside, above 1.2997 minor resistance will indicate that a temporary low is formed and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 1.3114/3341 resistance zone and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURUSD 1.2895 1.2988 -93 -0.72%
USDCHF 1.1108 1.1028 +80 +0.72%
NZDUSD 0.7158 0.7200 -42 -0.59%
AUDUSD 0.9040 0.9087 -47 -0.52%
EURJPY 122.15 122.78 -63 -0.52%

Last Updated: May 05 12:45 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD              
EUR              
JPY              
GBP              
CHF              
CAD              
AUD              

Last Updated: May 05 12:45 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Apr 2.00% -- 1.20%
01:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Mar 15.30% 0.90% -3.30% -2.70%
07:55 EUR German PMI Services Apr F 55.2 55 55
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Apr F 55.6 55.5 55.5
08:30 GBP PMI Construction Apr 58.2 53.2 53.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar 0.00% 0.10% -0.60% -0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Mar -0.10% -0.50% -1.10% -0.205
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr -71.10% -- -55.00%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Apr 32K 25K -23K
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Apr 56 55.4
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.6M 1.9M
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