Friday, May 7, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 5-7-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Daily Report: Dollar Firm after Crazy Day, Focus Turns to UK Election, US NFP

While the near 1000pts intraday loss in DOW might be triggered by "fat finger problem" where someone entered a 'b' for billion instead of an 'm' for million in a trade", the risk averse sentiment is undeniable as DOW still closed down -3.2%. Nikkei followed and is down -3.2% in Asia. Crude oil is trading at around 77 level and lacks buying to send it back above 80 level. Dollar index is currently consolidating around 85 level and remains firm. Investors are still concerned of the contagion effect of debt problems in the Eurozone.

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Special Reports

ECB Maintains Monetary Policy Unchanged. No Discussion on Bond Purchase

ECB leaves the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and keeps the monetary statement largely unchanged from previous meetings despite heightened sovereign crisis in the Eurozone. Investors are disappointed and dumped the euro more severely as the central bank refrains from implementing more loosening measures to stimulate economy.

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Stand aside

Although the single currency tumbled to as low as 1.2510 yesterday on active cross-selling against Japanese yen due to risk aversion as DJI once dropped over 900 points, as euro recovered in tandem with U.S. stocks, this over 200 points rebound suggests a minor low has been formed there and consolidation would be seen with mild upside bias for retracement to 1.2779 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3214 to 1.2510), however, renewed selling interest would emerge around 1.2837 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3365 to 1.2510) and bring another decline later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4644; (P) 1.4895; (R1) 1.5083; More

GBP/USD dropped to as low as 1.4595 so far and the break of 1.4783 confirms that whole fall from 1.7043 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should now be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5521 at 1.4487 next. On the upside, above 1.4936 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom is in place and bring more consolidations. But upside should be limited by 1.5125 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURJPY 116.61 114.32 +229 +1.96%
AUDJPY 81.31 80.16 +115 +1.41%
USDJPY 91.88 90.59 +129 +1.40%
EURGBP 0.8630 0.8513 +117 +1.36%
CHFJPY 82.39 81.30 +109 +1.32%

Last Updated: May 07 07:10 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD              
EUR              
JPY              
GBP              
CHF              
CAD              
AUD              

Last Updated: May 07 07:10 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Apr 2.90% 2.40% 2.10%
1:30 AUD RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement
5:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Apr 4.00% 4.10% 4.10%
7:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Mar 2.80% 3.10%
8:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Apr 1.00% 3.60%
8:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Apr 13.10% 10.10%
8:30 GBP PPI Outpu tM/M Apr 0.50% 0.90%
8:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Apr 4.80% 5.00%
8:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Apr 3.50% 3.60%
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Mar 1.50% 0.00%
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Apr 20.0K 17.9K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Apr 8.20% 8.20%
12:30 USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls Apr 180K 162K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Apr 9.70% 9.70%
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