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| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Dollar and Yen Higher on Spain Banking Concern, Korea TensionRisk aversion is trying to re gather momentum today on fear that banking problems in Spain will add further weight to the fiscal debt problem in Eurozone. In addition, investors are also nervous as tensions on the Korean peninsula escalates. Japanese Nikkei is down -3.06% or 298 pts while MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped over 3% to the lowest level since last July. Crude oil is back trading below 69 level and is heading further south. Dollar index is lifted to above 86.8 but the yen is even stronger with USD/JPY back below 90 level again. We might see dollar and yen breaks recent high against other major currencies if sentiments worsen further in European session. |    |
| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 110.81; (P) 112.09; (R1) 112.97; More. With 4 hours MACD back below signal line, EUR/JPY's recovery from 109.48 might have completed at 114.39 already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for 109.48 support first. Break will confirm down trend resumption and should target 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 next. Nevertheless, break of 114.39 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen, possibly towards 122.27 resistance. |
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| Special Report |
Why Did AUD Tumble Over the Past Few Weeks?Same as any other FX investor, we are stunned by Australian dollar's slump in recent weeks. Although we understand risk aversion has triggered selloff and long liquidation of the currency, the magnitude of the decline has exceeded what was implied by risk aversion. AUDUSD's rally since the beginning of the year reversed after price faltered below 2009-high of 0.9434 on April 11. The decline has accelerated recently and price plummeted to a 10-month low at 0.8071 before rebounding to 0.83 last week. The pair has dropped -10% over the past 3 weeks. Apart from USD, AUD also plunged against EUR (-5%), JPY (-15%) and GBP (-5%), etc. On average, Australian dollar has declined more than -10% against major currencies. EU Crisis Update: Market Remained Weak Despite Stabilization. Risk To The DownsideAfter a meeting in Brussels last Friday, EU finance ministers agreed to impose tougher sanctions against member countries that do not adhere to the region's budget rules. Policymakers agreed to reach greater budget discipline, find ways to reduce the divergence in competitiveness between the member states, endorse a crisis management mechanism in order to deal with deficit crisis should it happen again as well as strengthen economic governance so as to act in a more coordinated and efficient manner. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.1555As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after finding renewed buying interest at 1.1551 yesterday, suggesting recent upmove remains in progress and further gain towards 1.1657 (1.236 times projection of 0.9910 to 1.0899 measuring from 1.0435) would be seen, however, loss of near term upward momentum would prevent sharp move beyond 1.0700 and reckon resistance at 1.1742 would hold, bring correction later. Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Short position met target, look to sell higherDespite rebounding from 1.4352 yesterday, the British pound met renewed selling interest at 1.4464 as expected (we entered our short position here at 1.4460) and then price fell according to our expectation (met downside target at 1.4360 with 100 points profit). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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