Thursday, May 20, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-20-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Selling of AUD Broadens to CAD and NZD as Risk Aversion is Back

Risk aversion is back driving the markets today. In particular, selloff in commodities has intensified again with gold dives to as low as 1175 so far while crude oil also resumes recent decline and reaches as low s 67.55. European equities give up earlier against with DAX and CAC dropping over -2% so far. US equities are set to open sharply lower too as unexpected rise in jobless claims do little to support investor sentiments. Weakness in Australian dollar has now broadened to Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar. The Japanese yen is the main beneficiary this time and rises over 3.8% and 3.5% against Aussie and Loonie respectively. European majors are soft too but are somewhat supported by buying against commodity currencies and remain steady against the greenback.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0362; (P) 1.0450; (R1) 1.0521; More.

USD/CAD jumps sharply to as high as 1.0672 so at today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.0734 resistance first. Break there will revive the case that 0.9929 is already the medium term bottom and will put focus on 1.0779 key resistance confirmation. On the downside, though, below 1.0438 support turned resistance will mix up the outlook again and turn bias neutral.

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Special Report

Fed Discussed About Asset Sales, Raised Growth Outlook For 2010

The Fed raised its forecast on US economic growth for 2010 and revised down estimates for CPI and unemployment rate, as shown in the FOMC minutes for April';s meeting. Participants expected the economic recovery to continue, but, consistent with experience following previous financial crises, most anticipated that the pickup in output would be rather slow relative to past recoveries from deep recessions. A moderate pace of expansion, in turn, would imply only a modest improvement in the labor market this year, with the unemployment rate declining gradually.

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UK's New Era: Fiscal Consolidation and Monetary Stance

The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition released a document listing major agreements reached between the parties. What the market cares the most are the fiscal-consolidation plans. Before the alliance, Conservatives and Lib Dems had diverged views on the pace of cutting deficits. While the Conservatives preferred to cut deficits, primarily through spending cut, as soon as in 2010, Lib Dems sought to adopt a progressive way and begin fiscal tightening in 2011/12, with the spending cut/tax hike ratio around 2.5/1. However, the parties eventually agreed that a 'significantly accelerated reduction in the structural deficit over the course of a Parliament, with the main burden of deficit reduction borne by reduced spending rather than increased taxes'.

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.1400

Dollar's intra-day retreat after faltering below yesterday's high at 1.1587 suggests further consolidation below there would take place and test of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.1445) would be seen, below would bring retracement to yesterday's low at 1.1419, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.1400) and bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 91.45

As dollar has fallen again after brief recovery on renewed cross-buying in yen due to risk aversion, suggesting the fall from 93.65 is still in progress and as price already exceeded indicated downside target at 90.64 (1.236 times projection of 93.65-91.76 measuring from 92.97), suggesting further weakness towards 90.10/15 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 87.95 to 93.65) is under way but reckon 89.91(1.618 times projection would limit downside.

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Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold short entered at 113.60

Although the single currency rebounded from yesterday's 110.85 low to 114.11-13 (we entered short position at 113.60), as price has retreated from there today, suggesting as long as this level holds, bearishness remains for another decline later but break of said support is needed to signal downtrend has resumed in wave v for retest of 110.49 and possibly towards 110.00 but reckon 109.12 (100% projection of wave 1) would hold.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 0.8200

The Australian dollar dropped sharply again yesterday on cross-selling against Japanese yen due to massive risk aversion and bearishness remains for this 2nd a leg to extend weakness to 0.8200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.6248 to 0.9407), however, loss of near term downward momentum would limit this minor wave v of a to 0.8155/60 and bring rebound later today or tomorrow.

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Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q1 P 1.20% 1.40% 0.90% 1.00%
23:50 JPY GDP Annualized Q1 P 4.90% 5.50% 3.80%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 P -3.00% -2.90% -2.80% -2.70%
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation May 3.60% -- 4.10%
06:00 EUR German PPI M/M Apr 0.80% 0.60% 0.70%
06:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Apr 0.60% 0.40% -1.50%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Apr 0.30% 0.20% 0.40% 0.50%
09:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) May 40.5 -- 53.4
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Apr 0.90% 0.70% 1.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 471K 440K 444K
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Apr 0.20% 1.40%
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey May 22 20.2
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence May A -16 -15
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 79B 94B
Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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