Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-4-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Mid-Day Report: EUR/USD Breaks 1 Year Low as CDS Rises again on European Debt Fear

Euro drops sharply today and breaks through 1 year low of 1.3114 against dollar. In spite of the EUR 110b bailout packaged announced over the weekend, markets are still unconvinced that the fiscal debt crisis in Eurozone is solved. Investors are concerned that there are still a lot of obstacles ahead and there are still much risk of contagion spread. There are even rumors that Spain will be the next in line to apply for financial aids. CDS on Greece is back above 680 level today which implies over 40% probability of default over five years. CDS on Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy also rose back to above 180, 310, 200 and 140 respectively.

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Special Reports

RBA Hiked to 4.5%, Rates for Borrowers 'Around Average'

Inline with our forecast, the RBA raises the cash rate by +25 bps to 4.5% today. After hiking the policy rate for the 6th time in 8 months, 'rates for most borrowers will be around average levels', according to the central bank. In contrast with the statement in the previous meeting that the Board would progressively bring interest rates to be closer to average, the RBA says today's decision is 'a significant adjustment' from the very expansionary settings reached a year ago and the Board can 'set monetary policy as needed'. We believe this is a signal for a pause in June.

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ECB to Continue Gradul Stimulus Exit, Focus on Greece at Press Conference

The ECB is widely expected to maintain the main refinancing rate at 1% and leave its assessment on economic and inflationary outlook similar to previous meetings. The focus of the press conference will again be on Greece. While the related parties basically agreed on the terms of the 3-year loan totaling 110B euro, it will need to be approved by the parliament on May 7. There will likely be questions regarding contagion and collateral rules.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 123.00

The single currency ran into heavy offers at 125.46 and dropped sharply on risk aversion, suggesting the correction from 125.97 is still unfolding and weakness to minor support at 123.20/30 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 123.00 would limit downside and bring another rebound later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0770; (P) 1.0829; (R1) 1.0915; More.

USD/CHF's strong break of 1.0923 resistance confirms that recent rally has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1200 next. On the downside, below 1.0887 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1.0748 support and bring rally resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 86.34 87.51 -117 -1.36%
AUDUSD 0.9145 0.9260 -115 -1.26%
EURJPY 123.45 124.72 -127 -1.03%
CHFJPY 86.18 87.05 -87 -1.01%
CADJPY 92.63 93.50 -87 -0.94%

Last Updated: May 04 13:05 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD              
EUR              
JPY              
GBP              
CHF              
CAD              
AUD              

Last Updated: May 04 13:05 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
4:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 4.50% 4.50% 4.25%
6:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Mar -2.40% 0.00% 1.10% 1.10%
6:00 EUR German Retail Sales Y/Y Mar 2.70% -0.50% -0.90% -0.40%
8:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Apr 58 57.5 57.2
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Mar 0.60% 0.70% 0.10%
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Mar 0.90% 0.90% -0.50% -0.40%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Mar 3.70% 8.20%
14:00 USD Factory Orders Mar 0.00% 0.60%
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