Monday, May 17, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 5-17-10

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Daily Report: Dollar and Yen Higher on Risk Aversion, EUR/USD Makes 4 Year Low

Dollar and yen are broadly higher as the week starts on risk aversion as Nikkei drops -2.17% while crude oil also breaches 70 level. EUR/USD is sent to 4 year low of 1.2233, breaking 2008 low of 1.2329. However, the common currency manages to stay in range against commodity currencies while EUR/CHF is still holding on to 1.4000 psychological level. Dollar index breaches 86.87 medium term resistance and is set to extend current up trend towards 2009 high of 89.62 next.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4476; (P) 1.4558; (R1) 1.4620; More

GBP/USD falls to as low as 1.4250 so far today and the break of 1.4475 support confirms that whole fall fro 1.5521 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment and further decline should be seen to 100% projection of 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5521 at 1.3848 next. On the upside, above 1.4494 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited well below 1.5053 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.4445

The British pound finally resumed recent decline as price broke below support at 1.4475 and tumbled to as low as 1.4249, however, as price then rebounded from there, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and retracement to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.4399) and possibly the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4446) is likely but renewed selling interest should emerge below resistance at 1.4475 (previous support) and bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2350

The single currency resumed recent decline this morning and outlook remains bearish for further weakness to 1.2250 (100% projection of 1.3095 to 1.2605 measuring from 1.2740) and possibly towards 1.2200, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below latter level and risk has increased for a corrective rebound later.

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