Thursday, May 6, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-6-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Mid-Day Report: Euro Drops Further As Trichet Didn't Calm Markets, Swiss Franc Powers as SNB Gives Up

Euro remains under much pressure after ECB left rates unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected. No special announcement is made today and Trichet said that Governing Council didn't discuss today whether it should purchase government bonds as the euro region's fiscal crisis spreads. Nevertheless, Euro continues to feel the weight of debt crisis fear as Spain paid the highest yield since 2008 to sell their five year bonds today. Also, EUR/CHF drops sharply and breaks recent low of 1.4143 as markets circulate talks that SNB is finally giving up on intervention to restrict CHF's gain against Euro. SNB has repeatedly declined to comment. On the other hand, Euro is also weak broadly and drops to new record low against Aussie.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 121.30

Yesterday's selloff calls for a review of our preferred count and signals only wave iii has ended at 119.66 earlier, followed by wave iv at 127.95 and final wave v is unfolding with minor wave (iii) now in progress, which should extend weakness to 118.54 (50% projection of 138.49 to 119.66 measuring from 127.95), however, reckon 116.94 (1.618 times projection of 127.95-122.37 measuring from 125.97) would contain downside, bring rebound later this month.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Sell at 0.9160

Despite intra-day selloff to 0.8991, as aussie has recovered from there, suggesting consolidation would be seen before decline resumes again for the 3rd set of a-b-c of wave (ii) from 0.9389 and break of said support would extend weakness to 0.8940/50 but price should stay well above support at 0.8800, bring strong rebound next week.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4315; (P) 1.4332; (R1) 1.4340; More

EUR/CHF dives to as low as 1.4106 today and the break of 1.4143 support confirms that medium term down trend has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should now be seen to 1.4 psychological level first. On the upside, above 1.4178 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 1.4294 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURCHF 1.4044 1.4325 -281 -2.00%
AUDCHF 0.9948 1.0130 -182 -1.83%
CADCHF 1.0669 1.0846 -177 -1.66%
EURNZD 1.7569 1.7860 -291 -1.66%
GBPCHF 1.6626 1.6884 -258 -1.55%

Last Updated: May 06 13:20 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD              
EUR              
JPY              
GBP              
CHF              
CAD              
AUD              

Last Updated: May 06 13:20 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
-- GBP UK General Election -- --
22:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q1 1.00% 0.30% -0.10%
22:45 NZD Employment Change Y/Y Q1 -0.10% -1.20% -2.40%
22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q1 6.00% 7.30% 7.30% 7.10%
01:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Mar 0.30% 0.80% -1.40% -1.20%
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Mar -2082M -2125M -1924M -1701M
07:15 CHF CPI M/M Apr 0.90% 0.80% 0.10%
07:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Apr 1.40% 1.30% 1.40%
08:30 GBP PMI Services Apr 55.3 57 56.5
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Mar 5.00% 1.40% 0.00%
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders Y/Y Mar 26.10% 21.00% 24.50%
11:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
12:20 EUR ECB Press Conference -- --
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Mar 12.20% -- -0.50%
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q1 P 3.60% 2.50% 6.90%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 P -1.60% -0.50% -5.90%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 1) 444K 440K 448K
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Apr -- 57.8
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