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Mid-Day Report: Risk Aversion Recedes as Call for European Short Selling Ban Gained No Support, SNB IntervenesLess than a day after Germany imposed the naked short-selling ban, EU Internal Market Commissioner Michel Barnier urged other Eurozone finance ministers to coordinate their efforts at a European level to impose similar rules. Barnier emphasized to need to avoid 'regulatory arbitrage and fragmentation both within the EU and globally." German Chancellor Merkel said the Euro is "at risk" and said the naked short-selling ban will "remain in place until other rules are established on a European level." However, the call is not getting much support so far. Chairman of the Committee of European Securities Regulators Eddy Wymeersch said that a Europe-wide ban on naked short selling is "doubtful". |    |
| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3989; (P) 1.4018; (R1) 1.4032; More EUR/CHF jumped sharply to as high as 1.4204 on SNB intervention. The break of 1.4116 resistance flips intraday bias back to the upside and further rise might be seen towards 1.4433 resistance next. Nevertheless, we'd anticipate strong resistance between 1.4333/4465 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4 psychological level is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral first. |
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UK's New Era: Fiscal Consolidation and Monetary StanceThe Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition released a document listing major agreements reached between the parties. What the market cares the most are the fiscal-consolidation plans. Before the alliance, Conservatives and Lib Dems had diverged views on the pace of cutting deficits. While the Conservatives preferred to cut deficits, primarily through spending cut, as soon as in 2010, Lib Dems sought to adopt a progressive way and begin fiscal tightening in 2011/12, with the spending cut/tax hike ratio around 2.5/1. However, the parties eventually agreed that a 'significantly accelerated reduction in the structural deficit over the course of a Parliament, with the main burden of deficit reduction borne by reduced spending rather than increased taxes'. |
| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 1.1435Despite intra-day brief drop to 1.1419, as the greenback has rebounded, suggesting consolidation with upside bias remains but break of resistance at 1.1533 is needed to confirm upmove has once again resumed and extend gain to 1.1558 (1.236 times projection of 1.0732 to 1.1245 measuring from 1.0924), however, 1.1600 should hold on first testing. Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Stand asideAlthough the single currency has rebounded after trading above intra-day support at 1.2143, a firm breach above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2296 is needed to signal a temporary low is possibly formed and bring further gain to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.2365 but break of the upper Kumo (now at 1.2406) is needed to confirm, then retracement to yesterday's high at 1.2445 would follow. | ||
| Elliott Wave Trade Ideas | ||
Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 113.60The single currency met renewed selling interest at 115.50 yesterday and tumbled again, suggesting the wave v from 122.29 is still in progress and further weakness to previous support at 110.49 is under way, break there would extend to 110.00 but reckon 109.12 (100% projection of wave 1) should hold. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.8830The Australian dollar tumbled and broke below support at 0.8578, indicating the wave 5 has ended at 0.9389 as a failure fifth and major correction has commenced from there which is the A leg and is sub-divided into an abc-x-abc with first set of abc ended at 0.8711, followed by x wave at 0.9078 and 2nd a leg is now unfolding which may extend weakness towards 0.8400 (100% projection of 0.9389 to 0.8711 measuring from 0.9078), however, reckon 0.8364 (1.236 times projection of 0.9407 to 0.8578 measuring from 0.9389) would hold from here. | ||
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