Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 5-5-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Daily Report: Euro Stays Weak on Fear of Recurring Sovereign Debt Crisis

Euro's fall accelerated overnight and made 13 month low against dollar at 1.2936 before recovering mildly today. Markets are concerned that the EUR 110b Greece bailout package wouldn't be able to stop the contagion effect to other Eurozone countries, in particular Spain, Portugal and Italy. There were even rumors that Spain has already asked for EUR 280b of aid from EU/IMF but that was denied by Spain's Prime Minister Luis Rodriguez Zapatero. Former BoE policy make Sunshil Wadhwani said that there is no "credible mechanism" in place to deal with potentially Portugal and Spain and there is risk of "recurring sovereign debt crises."

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Special Reports

ECB to Continue Gradul Stimulus Exit, Focus on Greece at Press Conference

The ECB is widely expected to maintain the main refinancing rate at 1% and leave its assessment on economic and inflationary outlook similar to previous meetings. The focus of the press conference will again be on Greece. While the related parties basically agreed on the terms of the 3-year loan totaling 110B euro, it will need to be approved by the parliament on May 7. There will likely be questions regarding contagion and collateral rules.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3070

Yesterday's selloff after breaking support at 1.3114 (now turned to resistance) due to active cross-selling in euro due to risk aversion suggests recent downtrend remains in progress and further weakness towards 1.2881-85 (61.8% projection of 1.4580 to 1.3267 measuring from 1.3692 and previous chart support) is likely, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.2850.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy at 94.10

Outlook remains supportive for recent upmove to extend further gain to 95.10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 101.45 to 84.82) and then towards 95.64-73 (100% projection of 91.60 – 94.43 measuring from 92.8, 61.8% projection of 88.14 to 94.78 measuring from 91.60 and 1.618 times projection of 91.60-93.45 measuring from 92.74 respectively), however, overbought condition would limit upside to 96.30/35 (approx. 1.236 times projection of 91.60 to 94.43 measuring from 92.81) and bring retreat later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8537; (P) 0.8603; (R1) 0.8642; More.

EUR/GBP's break of 0.8601 key support level suggests that fall from 0.9799 is still in progress. Also, the development indicates that correction from 0.9799 is not a triangle but is likely a three wave correction with the third wave started at 0.9410. Intraday bias is now on the downside, and deeper decline should be seen toward next key support level at 0.8399. On the upside, break of 0.8732 resistance is needed to indicate that EUR/GBP has bottomed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish even in case of recovery.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURUSD 1.2942 1.2988 -46 -0.36%
USDCHF 1.1067 1.1028 +39 +0.35%
GBPCHF 1.6758 1.6699 +59 +0.35%
EURGBP 0.8547 0.8575 -28 -0.33%
USDCAD 1.0274 1.0241 +33 +0.32%

Last Updated: May 05 07:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD              
EUR              
JPY              
GBP              
CHF              
CAD              
AUD              

Last Updated: May 05 07:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence Apr 73 72
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Apr 2.00% -- 1.20%
1:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Mar 15.30% 0.90% -3.30% -2.70%
7:55 EUR German PMI Services Apr F 55 55
8:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Apr F 55.5 55.5
8:30 GBP PMI Construction Apr 53.2 53.1
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar 0.10% -0.60%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Mar -0.50% -1.10%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr -- -55.00%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Apr 25K -23K
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Apr 56 55.4
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.6M 1.9M
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