Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-11-10

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Mid-Day Report: Skepticism Continues to Weigh on Euro

German government approved the country's contribution of at least EUR 123b to the massive EUR 750b emergency funding packaged agreed by EU and IMF. But the news provide no support Euro as markets doubts that the package only postpones the debt crisis in Eurozone, rather than solves it. Investors are still concerned that while immediate default of Greece is avoided, new issues might arise as the huge fiscal deficits in the region continue. Euro is back pressing 1.27 level against dollar while major stock indices in Euro pare yesterday's gains. Nevertheless, we're not seeing strong enough momentum in dollar and yen to stage a breakout and hence, markets will possibly stay in range for a while first.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.45; (P) 119.86; (R1) 121.69; More.

EUR/JPY's fall from 122.27 continues in early US session and the break of 117.39 minor support indicates that rebound from 110.69 is finished. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside and further fall might be seen to retest this low. Though, break there is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, some choppy sideway trading would likely be seen between 122.27 and 110.69 first.

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Market Reaction to EU-IMF's Stability Package and ECB's Easing Measures

Market reaction to EU-IMF and ECB's measures to contain European sovereign crisis and to arrest euro's selloff was positive, albeit lacking momentum. The euro surged initially, breaking above 1.3 against the dollar and 120 against Japanese yen. However, the rally lost steam as ECB's accommodative stance might delay the first rate hike and investors worried the Eurozone will experience a double-dip recession as long as fiscal problems are unresolved.

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EU and ECB Announced Tremendous Measures to Stem Debt Crisis

In addition to approving the loans to Greece, EU finance ministers announced a plan worth 750B euro to prevent Greek sovereign crisis from spreading and the euro from free-falling. The ECB also announced to intervene the public and private bond markets. The EU stated that the comprehensive package of measures is to preserve financial stability in Europe and it includes a 500B-euro European Financial Stabilization mechanism of which 440B euro will come from 16 member countries in the Eurozone which the remaining 60B euro will come from European Commission's emergency funding. The IMF has agreed to contribute 250B euro in the package.

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.2620

Although the single currency has remained under pressure on risk aversion and weakness towards 1.2610/17 (previous support and 50% projection of 1.3095 to 1.2723 measuring from 1.2803) cannot be ruled out, loss of near term downward momentum would prevent sharp fall below 1.2590/00 and bring rebound later. Above minor resistance at 1.2755/60 would suggest intra-day low is possibly formed and bring rebound towards 1.2800/03.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 91.50

As the greenback maintained a firm undertone after staging a strong rebound from 1.0924 yesterday, suggesting the correction from 1.1245 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain towards 1.1184 resistance area, however, a sustained breach above there is needed to confirm and signal upmove has resumed for retest of 1.1245 later, otherwise, choppy consolidation would continue.

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Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Target met with 170 points profit and sell again at 119.30

Despite yesterday's rise to 122.29, the single currency did falter below indicated resistance at 122.35/40 (previous support, wave i trough) and retreated sharply as suggested, our short position entered at 122.00 made a quick 170 points profit as euro dropped sharply to below 118.00 yesterday.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Hold long entered at 0.8985

Although aussie retreated after yesterday's rise to 0.9078 and consolidation below this level would take place, as long as intra-day support at 0.8955 holds, mild upside bias remains and break of said resistance would extend the rebound from 0.8711 towards indicated resistance at 0.9155/65, break there would confirm c leg and wave (ii) has ended at 0.8711 and extend gain to 0.9250.

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