Monday, May 31, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 5-31-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Market Steady With UK and US on Holiday

Markets are pretty steady in the last trading day of the month and activities will probably remain low with US and UK on holiday. Markets are not much bothered by news that Japan's Social Democratic Party quit the country's coalition government over the weekend and Nikkei closed mildly up by +5.7s pts. Crude oil continues to consolidate around 74 level while gold is gyrating around 1210. Major currencies pairs stay in tight range so far while dollar index is staying around 86.5.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.84; (P) 112.25; (R1) 113.16; More.

EUR/JPY is staying in tight range around 4 hours 55 EMA for the moment. With a short term bottom in place, with 4 bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, further recovery might be seen towards 38.2% retracement of 127.88 to 108.82 at 116.10. Nevertheless, such recovery is treated as a correction in the larger down trend only. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance below 61.8% retracement at 120.60 to limit upside and finally bring fall resumption. On the downside, decisive break of 108.82 will target 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 next.

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Special Report

Risk Appetite Improved Depsite Spain's Downgrade. Sovereign Risk Lingers‏

Market sentiment seemed to have eased after weeks of selloff in the financial market. Stocks and most commodities recorded gains over the week. However, sovereign-debt crisis in the Eurozone is yet to be resolved and we got Spain being downgraded on Friday.

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BOC to be the First G7 Central Banks to Hike Rate

After the Bank of Canada removed the conditional statement at the meeting on April 20, there had been strong expectation of a rate hike in June. The market had in fact priced in a full +25 bps increase shortly after the meeting. However, the hopes faded as Eurozone's sovereign crisis escalated. With concerns over a double dip economic recovery, the bet on a June rate hike vs another month of unchanged policy is now 50-50. Therefore, the meeting outcome next Monday will be crucial for future economic development as well as the outlook for Canadian dollar.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI May 54.7 -- 53.5 53.8
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Apr P 1.30% 2.60% 0.30% 1.20%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Apr P 25.90% 27.40% 31.80%
1:30 AUD Current Account Balance (AUD) Q1 -16.6B -16.4B -17.5B -18.5B
3:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence May 48.2 -- 49.5
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Apr 0.60% 6.60% -2.40%
8:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Apr -0.30% -0.10%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y May 1.70% 1.50%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence May 100.6 100.6
9:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence May -18 -18
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence May -7 -7
9:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence May 6 5
12:30 CAD Quarterly GDP Annualized Q1 5.80% 5.00%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Mar 0.50% 0.30%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Apr -0.30% -0.40%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Apr 1.00% 0.80%
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2230

Although the single currency rebounded after falling to 1.2255 this morning, break of the flat ground Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2359) is needed to signal the retreat from 1.2454 has ended and bring retest of this level, otherwise, risk of marginal weakness below said support cannot be ruled out but reckon 1.2204 would hold and bring another rebound later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 91.00

Although the greenback resumed recent rise from 88.95 after finding renewed buying interest at 90.60 last Friday (unfortunately we removed the buy at 90.80 recommendation ahead of the weekend) and gain to 91.90/00 (approx. 61.8% projection of 89.26-91.41 measuring from 90.60), however, loss of near term upward momentum would prevent sharp move beyond 92.15/20 (approx. 1.618 times projection of 88.95 to 90.75 measuring from 89.26) and reckon resistance at 92.97 would remain intact, yield retreat later.

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