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Daily Report: Risk Aversion Drives Dollar and Yen Higher, Aussie Hardest HitRisk aversion continues to drive dollar and yen higher today. DOW was down -1.08% overnight after German Bafin announced to ban naked short-selling of Eurozone government bonds, CDS and shares of a group of 10 leading German financial stocks. Asian equities are broadly lower but received some support as China stocks are in a technical recovery. Though, Nikkei is still down -0.54%. Crude oil is under tremendous pressure and breached 68 level to 67.9 so far and remains weak. Dollar index managed to break through 87.01 level to recent medium term up trend. |    |
| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.1323; (P) 1.1419; (R1) 1.1571; More. USD/CHF's retreat from 1.1447 was relatively brief and recent rally resumed by rising to as high as 1.1530 so far. We'll stay short term bullish as long as 1.1267 minor support holds and expect the current rise to target 161.8% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1673 next. On the downside, though, below 1.1267 will indicate that a short term top is formed, possibly with divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, and bring lengthier consolidations. |
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| Special Report |
UK's New Era: Fiscal Consolidation and Monetary StanceThe Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition released a document listing major agreements reached between the parties. What the market cares the most are the fiscal-consolidation plans. Before the alliance, Conservatives and Lib Dems had diverged views on the pace of cutting deficits. While the Conservatives preferred to cut deficits, primarily through spending cut, as soon as in 2010, Lib Dems sought to adopt a progressive way and begin fiscal tightening in 2011/12, with the spending cut/tax hike ratio around 2.5/1. However, the parties eventually agreed that a 'significantly accelerated reduction in the structural deficit over the course of a Parliament, with the main burden of deficit reduction borne by reduced spending rather than increased taxes'. |
| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2075The single currency resumed recent decline on broad-based weakness in euro and further weakness to 1.2100 would be seen, however, loss of near term downward momentum would prevent sharp fall below 1.2070/75 (approx. 50% projection of 1.2445-1.2143 measuring from 1.2224) and bring rebound later. Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.1435The greenback rallied after finding decent demand right at the Ichimoku cloud bottom yesterday and resumed recent upmove to a high of 1.1533 this morning, however, as price has retreated from there, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and retracement to 1.1430/35 (approx. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1268 to 1.1533) cannot be ruled out, however, the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1400) should hold, bring another rise later. | ||
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