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Daily Report: AUD Lower after RBA and Disappointing China PMI, BoC NextAustralian dollar is generally softer today as RBA left interest rates unchanged at 4.5% and sounded cautious on the development in Europe. Disappointing China PMI data also added some weighs to risk sentiments. Asian stocks are generally lower with Nikkei dropped -56.8pts to close at 9711. Crude oil is flat at around 74 level but gold managed to extend recent rebound and breached 1220 level. Dollar index is steady at around 86.6/7. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 90.90; (P) 91.26; (R1) 91.60; More. A temporary top is in place at 91.60 with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. At this point, another rise cannot be ruled out. But after all, price actions from 88.25 are consolidative in nature. Hence, we'd expect upside to be limited below 93.62 resistance and bring another fall. On the downside, below 90.58 minor support will indicate that recovery from 88.97 is finished and flip intraday bias back to the downside for 88.13/25 support zone. |
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| Special Report |
RBA On Hold. Economic Data Suggest Previous Tightening Taking Its TollConsistent with market expectations, the RBA left its overnight cash rate unchanged at 4.5% as previous rate hikes have brought interest rates to average levels of the past decade and the central bank needs to gauge impacts of European policymakers' measures to contain sovereign crisis. Interestingly, statement skipped detailed discussions on domestic economy where data showed moderation in recent weeks. Risk Appetite Improved Depsite Spain's Downgrade. Sovereign Risk LingersMarket sentiment seemed to have eased after weeks of selloff in the financial market. Stocks and most commodities recorded gains over the week. However, sovereign-debt crisis in the Eurozone is yet to be resolved and we got Spain being downgraded on Friday. BOC to be the First G7 Central Banks to Hike RateAfter the Bank of Canada removed the conditional statement at the meeting on April 20, there had been strong expectation of a rate hike in June. The market had in fact priced in a full +25 bps increase shortly after the meeting. However, the hopes faded as Eurozone's sovereign crisis escalated. With concerns over a double dip economic recovery, the bet on a June rate hike vs another month of unchanged policy is now 50-50. Therefore, the meeting outcome next Monday will be crucial for future economic development as well as the outlook for Canadian dollar. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.4590Despite intra-day retreat to 1.4470, as the British pound has rebounded from there, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and above yesterday's high at 1.4549 would bring stronger recovery, however, as long as resistance at 1.4612 holds, another retreat would be seen. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 90.70Although dollar has rebounded after intra-day fall to 90.88, above resistance at 91.63 is needed to confirm recent corrective rise from 88.95 has resumed and extend to to 91.90/00 (approx. 61.8% projection of 89.26-91.41 measuring from 90.60) but loss of near term upward momentum would prevent sharp move beyond 92.15/20 (approx. 1.618 times projection of 88.95 to 90.75 measuring from 89.26) and reckon resistance at 92.97 would remain intact, bring retreat later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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