Monday, June 21, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-21-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Appetite Still Strong But Dollar Pares Loss

Risk appetite remains strong as lifted by China's announcement of letting Yuan gains. US stocks open higher with DOW up over 100 pts in initial trading, following broad based rally in European and Asian equities. Crude oil remains firm in early US session and trading around 78.5 level while gold makes another record high of 1266.5. Treasury yield has a rebound with yield on 10 years note climbs to 3.3% level but remains in familiar range so far. On the to note is that dollar manages to pare some of earlier loses as the day goes. EUR/USD is off intraday high of 1.2466 while USD/JPY is well above 90.28. Though, dollar remains weak against commodity currencies.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2354; (P) 1.2385 (R1) 1.2418; More.

A temporary top should be in place at 1.2446 and intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral. Above 1.2446 will possibly bring another rise to 38.2% retracement of 1.3691 to 1.1875 at 1.2569 and possibly further to 55 days EMA (now at 1.2656) but strong resistance should be seen at 1.2671 to limit upside. Below 1.2241 will argue that recovery from 1.1875 is over and flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Jun 0.30% -- 0.70%
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices Y/Y Jun 5.00% -- 4.30%
4:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Apr 1.80% 2.00% -0.80% -0.70%
16:00 CHF SNB Chairman Hildebrand Speaks -- -- --
16:30 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks -- -- --
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Buy at 0.8290

The single currency has remained confined within narrow range and further consolidation would be seen, however, as our view remains that temporary low has been formed at 0.8210 as wave v, downside should be limited to 0.8290/00 and support at 0.8262 should hold, bring another rebound later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 112.10

Despite euro's intra-day rebound, euro needs to penetrate resistance at 113.32 (last week's high) to add credence to our bullish view and confirm the rise from 108.06 low has resumed for gain to resistance at 114.16, however, this a leg of the correction from 108.06 should be limited to 115.00 and bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.1200 or Buy at 1.1030

Despite intra-day fall to 1.0986, the subsequent rebound from there to 1.1110 suggests a temporary low has been formed and test of minor resistance at 1.1131 is seen, above there would bring stronger retracement, however, renewed selling interest should emerge well below the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.1213), bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.4810

Cable's intra-day sharp retreat from 1.4936 suggests caution on our long position entered at 1.4810 and 1.4766-71 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and previous support) must hold to retain our bullishness for another rebound, above 1.4885/90 would suggest pullback from 1.4936 has possibly ended but break of this resistance is needed to confirm and extend upmove towards 1.5000

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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