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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Soldoff after Fitch Comments on DeficitSterling was sharply soldoff earlier today after Fitch's comment on UK's fiscal deficit. UK stocks also led European equities lower. Flight to safety was the main movement in financial markets where we saw EUR/CHF took another dive and breached 1.38 level. On the other hand, gold soared and made new record high of 1254.5. Dollar index hovers above 88 level. With an empty calendar, focus will be on when US stocks will drop through recent low with DOW takes out 9774 level. |
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GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.4382; (P) 1.4472; (R1) 1.4557; More GBP/USD's recovery was limited by 4 hours 55 EMA and break of 1.4387 suggests that fall fro 1.4769 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.4230 low first. Break there will down trend resumption to 61.8% projection of 1.5521 to 1.4230 from 1.4769 at 1.3971 next. On the upside, above 1.4561 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But after all, even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited below 1.4769 resistance and bring fall resumption finally. |
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RBNZ To Begin Its Normalizing Process In JuneCurrently, interest-rate swaps indicate an 80% chance the RBNZ will raise the cash rate by +25 bps points to 2.75% in June. The market had priced in chances of 52% on May 21 and 64% after April's meeting. Despite uncertainty in Eurozone's sovereign crisis, the hike is warranted as recent data has shown robust domestic economic growth. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.1470As the greenback has fallen again after brief recovery on cross-buying in Swiss franc, suggesting near term downside risk remains for the fall from 1.1673 to bring stronger retracement of the rise from 1.1426 and weakness to 1.1520 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1426 to 1.1673) is likely, however, reckon 1.1470 would attract renewed buying interest and bring another rally later. Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.4500Despite intra-day anticipated fall to 1.4373, as the British pound has recovered after holding above indicated spike support at 1.4360, suggesting consolidation above this level would take place and above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1,.4451) would bring retracement to 1.4490/00 (approx. current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom), however, renewed selling interest should emerge there and intra-day resistance at 1.4530 should cap upside, bring another selloff later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 109.95As the single currency recovered after resuming recent decline to as low as 108.06 yesterday, suggesting consolidation would be seen but upside should be limited to 110.33 (yesterday's high) and bring another decline. Break of said support would extend weakness in wave v to 107.50 and then 107.00. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.8300Although aussie fell marginally to 0.8089 this morning (yesterday's low was 0.8097), as price has rebounded after failing to break previous support at 0.8066, suggesting consolidation would be seen and recovery to 0.8310/20 (approx. 50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8552 to 0.8089) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 0.8365-75 (previous minor support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold and bring another decliner later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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