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Daily Report: Aussie Pares Gain after Strong China Inflation DataCommodity currencies pare recent gain today as strong inflation data from China prompted speculation of more tightening measures ahead. Headline CPI in China rose 3.1% yoy in May, exceeding the government's upper range of 3%. Other data were also strong with fixed asset investment surging 25.9% in the first five month through May, compared with 26.1% in the first four months while retail sales soaring 18.7% yoy, after 18.5% rise in April. Given the set of strong economic data, the government is poised to implement further measures to cool down growth and curb inflation, including the the possibility or rate hike or revaluation of Chinese Yuan. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8338; (P) 0.8423; (R1) 0.8584; More AUD/USD's rebound form 0.8079 extended further to as high as 0.8507 before retreating mildly. Further rise could still be seen but after all, recent price actions from 0.8066 are treated as consolidation to fall from 0.9380 only. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance at 38.2% retracement of 0.9380 to 0.8066 at 0.8568 and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8355 minor support will suggest that recovery from 0.8079 is completed and flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first. |
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ECB: Rates Unchanged, GDP and Inflation Forecasts Raised, No Details on Bond Purchase ProgramThe ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% but announced to provide full allotment of 3-month LTRO with full allotment in July, August and September. Concerning economic outlook, the staff projection raised GDP forecasts for 2010 to +1% from +0.8% but lowered that for 2011 to +1.2% from +1.5%. Inflation outlook for 2010 and 2011 were revised up to +1.5% (previous: +1.5%) and +1.6% (previous: +1.5%) respectively, driven by surge in energy prices and decline in euro. Disappointedly, President Trichet did not give much detail about the bond purchase plan. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.1350Although dollar has recovered after falling to 1.1397 yesterday and consolidation would be seen initially in European morning, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.475) would limit upside and 1.1506 resistance should hold, bring one more fall later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 91.00Dollar's rebound after yesterday's fall to 90.85 suggests further consolidation above this week's low at 90.84 would be seen with mild upside bias for gain towards 92.10, however, break there is needed to signal the decline from 92.89 is over and extend to 92.50, otherwise, near term choppy trading is likely to continue. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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