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Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Stabilizes as Stocks Recover, Canadian Dollar Leads ReboundMarket sentiments stabilized today after Hungary government said there was no danger of default and pledged to stick to the budget deficit goal approved by creditors. In order to meet the 3.8% deficit target 2010, the hungarian government might launch a three-year radical tax-cut plan starting from July and introduce a flat income tax in 2011. Euro was also limited mildly by much stronger than expected Germany factory orders which rose 2.8% mom, 29.6% yoy in April. Eurozone Sentix Investor confidence also improved to -4.1 in June. Major European indices recover from earlier loss and is nearly flat the time of writing. Meanwhile, crude oil is also back above 71 level. |
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USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.1483; (P) 1.1563; (R1) 1.1706; More. USD/CHF retreats ahead of 1.1729 resistance and at this point intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidative trading might be seen and bring 1.1429 minor support will bring deeper fall. But after all, we'd expect strong support from 1.1244 (38.2% retracement of 1.0434 to 1.1729 at 1.1234) to contain downside and bring up trend resumption. On the upside decisive break of 1.1729 will target 1.1963 next, 200% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1966. |
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Hungarian Government's Default Comments Unnerved The MarketEuropean sovereign crisis remained worrisome and concerns over Hungary's default weighed on peripheral European debts after comments from Hungary leaders. Stoxx 600 reversed sharply after hitting an intra-week high of 251.39 on Thursday as the concern intensified. US stocks followed and the fall accelerated on disappointing non-farm payroll. VStoxx, a gauge of volatility using Euro Stoxx 50 options prices, and its US equivalent VIX, rebounded strongly to close the week. Hungarian leaders and members for the EU and IMF quickly came out and downplayed the comments. But the conflicting messages were not accepted by the markets as confidence was hurt and global financial markets remain under tremendous pressure as the week starts. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.1560Although dollar has rebounded after intra-day retreat to 1.1589, above resistance at 1.1673 is needed to signal the rise from last week's 1.1426 low has resumed and bring subsequent retest of recent high of 1.1730, then 1.0790/00 and possibly 1.0829 (50% projection of 1.0924 to 1.1730 measuring from 1.1426), otherwise, further consolidation is in store and another corrective fall below said support cannot be ruled out Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2045Although intra-day rebound from 1.1876 to 1.1992 suggests a minor low has been formed there and correction to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2047) is underway, renewed selling interest should emerge around this level (this is also just 1 tick below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2327 to 1.1876 at 1.2048) and bring decline later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.8270Friday's euro-led selloff suggests the 2nd b leg from 0.8066 has possibly ended at 0.8552 and a retest of recent low at 0.8066 cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to confirm and signal 2nd c leg is under way for further weakness towards psychological support at 0.8000, then 0.7981 (1.618 times projection of 0.9389 to 0.8711 measuring from 0.9078) but reckon 0.7927 (61.8% projection of 0.9078 to 0.8066 measuring from 0.8552) would hold on first testing. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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