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Daily Report: Yen Firm on Risk Aversion, Focus on BoE Minutes and FOMCYen was firm against most major currencies today on risk aversion as Nikkei dropped -1.87% to close below 10000 level again at 9923 following -1.43% fall in DOW. But European majors are gathering some strength for a rebound in early European session. Sterling survived yesterday's emergency budget released and focus will turn to BoE minutes to be released today. More housing data from US will be featured today with New Home Sales scheduled that would trigger volatility in risk sentiments. Meanwhile market's attention will also be on FOMC rate decision and accompanying statement. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2230; (P) 1.2291 (R1) 1.2332; More. EUR/USD dipped to as low as 1.2245 but downside is so far still contained above 1.2241 support. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Another rise might still be seen with 1.2241 minor support intact and above 1.2466 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.3691 to 1.1875 at 1.2569 and possibly further to 55 days EMA (now at 1.2625). But strong resistance should be seen at 1.2671 to limit upside. Below 1.2241 will argue that recovery from 1.1875 is over and flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first. |
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Fed May Deliver A More Dovish Statement In June, Leave Rates UnchangedAt the June FOMC meeting, we expect the Fed will reiterate the stance to keep the policy rate at 'exceptionally low level' for an 'extended period'. However, given some disappointing economic data released since the last meeting and elevated sovereign crisis in the Eurozone during the period, the economic outlook may be modestly downgraded and the overall statement may look more dovish. UK Pledges to Cut Deficits AggressivelyAt the emergency Budget, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne delivered the toughest measures including spending cuts and tax hikes to reduce the largest fiscal shortfall among the G-20 countries. Osborne expects the measures will reduce the UK's public sector net borrowing (PSNB) to 20B pound (1.1% of GDP) in 2015/16 from 149B pound (10.1% of GDP) this year. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.4900As the British pound has edged higher again after finding renewed buying interest at the Ichimoku cloud bottom, suggesting the rise from 1.4688 may extend gain to 1.4900, however, as long as resistance at 1.4936 holds, further choppy consolidation would be seen and another retreat is likely. Below minor support at 1.4800/03 (also current level of the lower Kumo) would signal top has possibly been formed but break of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4773) is needed to confirm, then weakness to 1.4700/10 would follow. Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.1210 or Buy at 1.1000Despite yesterday's retreat to 1.1036, the recovery from there adds credence to our view that further consolidation would be seen and as temporary low has possibly been formed at 1.0986, reckon downside would be limited and bring another corrective rebound. Above resistance at 1.1137 would bring retracement of recent fall to 1.1175 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1480 to 1.0986) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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