Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 6-2-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Sterling Firm on Prudential News, Yen Soft as Hatoyama Quits

Sterling remains the strongest current today on news that Prudential is in talks to terminate the deal to buy AIG's Asian unit. Prudential, which sold sterling for dollars to finance the deal, may need to sell greenbacks in exchange for the pound. EUR/GBP extends this week's fall and breaches 0.83 level for the first time since 2008. Sterling is so far stronger against Aussie and Kiwi this week with GBP/AUD up 3.9% and GBP/NZD up 2.5%.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.17; (P) 132.82; (R1) 134.84; More

GBP/JPY's rebound from 126.73 extends further to as high as 135.20 so far today. Further rise could still be seen as long as 130.78 minor support holds. Nevertheless, we' expect strong resistance between 55 days EMA (now at 137.27) and 61.8% retracement 138.60 to limit upside and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 130.78 will indicate that such rebound is completed and will flip intraday bas to the downside for retesting 126.73 low first.

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Special Report

BOC Hiked Rate to 0.5%, Remained Cautious to Global Economic Outlook

As expected, the Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate by +25 bps to 0.5%, being the first G7 central banks to tighten monetary policy after recession. While policymakers acknowledged robust domestic economic growth in recent months, they remained cautious about global market developments, especially uncertainty over sovereign crisis in the Eurozone.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y May 3.70% 2.80% 2.90%
1:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q1 0.50% 0.60% 0.90% 1.10%
1:30 AUD GDP Y/Y Q1 2.70% 2.60% 2.70%
7:15 CHF Retail Sales Y/Y Apr 3.70% 4.50% 4.00%
8:30 GBP PMI Construction May 58 58.2
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Apr 0.70% 0.60%
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Apr 2.60% 0.90%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y May -- -71.10%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Apr 6.00% 5.30%
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.4630

As the British pound has maintained a firm undertone on active cross-buying in sterling especially against the euro, suggesting recent corrective upmove from 1.4228 temporary low is still in progress, however, loss of near term upward momentum would prevent sharp move beyond 1.4770/80 and reckon 1.4815 (previous minor support) would hold from here, bring retreat.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2150

Despite falling sharply to 1.2110 on the first trading day of June, as the single currency staged a strong rebound from there (talk of a large DNT 1.21-1.25), suggesting further consolidation above 1.2100 would take place and although price then retreated from yesterday's high of 1.2355, as long as said support holds, prospect of another rebound remains.

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