Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-23-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Surges as Sentence Voted for Hike, Canadian Dollar Lower on Retail Sales Disappointment

Sterling rises sharply today as BoE minutes showed that policy Sentence voted for a 25bps hike in last meeting. The minutes revealed that the Committee voted 7-1 to keep the bank rate unchanged at 0.5%. This was the first time in almost 2 years that a rate hike was proposed.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.23; (P) 90.66; (R1) 91.00; More.

USD/JPY's break of 90.28 confirms that fall from 92.87 has resumed and further decline should be seen to 88.97 next. Break there will suggest that whole consolidations pattern from 88.25 is finished at 92.87 already and whole fall from 94.97 is resuming for 88.13 and below. On the upside, however, break of 91.46 resistance will dampen the bearish case and flip intraday bias back to the upside for 92.87 and above.

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BOE Diverged on Rate Decision. One Favored Rate Hike

BOE's minutes for June's meeting unveiled one of the policymakers favored hiking the policy rate although the Committee voted 7-1 to keep the bank rate unchanged at 0.5%. This was the first time in almost 2 years that a rate hike was proposed. The members however voted unanimously for maintaining the asset purchase program unchanged at 200B pound.

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Fed May Deliver A More Dovish Statement In June, Leave Rates Unchanged

At the June FOMC meeting, we expect the Fed will reiterate the stance to keep the policy rate at 'exceptionally low level' for an 'extended period'. However, given some disappointing economic data released since the last meeting and elevated sovereign crisis in the Eurozone during the period, the economic outlook may be modestly downgraded and the overall statement may look more dovish.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Current Account Balance (NZD) -0.180B -0.250B -3.574B
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer sentiment Q1 3.5 3.3 3.5
07:30 EUR German PMI Services Jun A 54.6 54.7 54.8
07:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Jun A 58.1 58 58.4
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Jun A 55.4 55.9 56.2
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Jun A 55.6 55.3 55.8
08:30 GBP BoE Meeting Minutes 1--0--7 0--0--9 0--0--9
10:00 GBP U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Jun -5 -17 -18
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Apr -2.00% -0.40% 2.10%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Apr -1.20% 0.00% 1.70%
14:00 USD New Home Sales May 430K 504K
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.2M 1.7M
18:15 USD FOMC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 112.45

Euro's retreat after early marginal rise to 113.43 suggests top has been formed there and weakness to 110.70-75 (approx. 50% Fibonacci retracement of 108.06 to 113.43), then 110.11 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) is likely but break of latter level is needed to retain bearishness and fall to 109.50 would follow, however, price should stay well above support at 108.06.

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Exit short entered at 1.4900

The British pound jumped after the release of Bank of England MPC meeting minutes (vote outcome of 7-1 instead of forecast of 8-0 with Sentance voted for a 25 basis points hike), although cable has retreated from 1.4918, below 1.4859-60 (previous resistance and current level of the Tenkan-Sen) is needed to signal an intra-day top has possibly been formed and bring test of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.4830).

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Fundamental Highlights

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