Monday, June 14, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-14-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Appetite Drives Dollar and Yen Further Lower

Risk appetite continues to drive financial markets today. Dollar and yen extends last week fall against other major currencies as European stocks strengthen. Dollar index dips to as low as 86.46 so far, and is set to take out 86 level sooner or later. Crude oil breaches 75.50 and is heading to 76 and above. US economic calendar is empty and stocks and forex correlation will remain the major driver. DOW will likely ride on strength of global equities and head towards last week's high of 10315 and provide some more pressure to dollar and yen.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1415; (P) 1.1480; (R1) 1.1556; More.

USD/CHF's break of 1.1397 indicates that correction from 1.1729 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for further fall towards 1.1244 (38.2% retracement of 1.0434 to 1.1729 at 1.1234). Nevertheless, note that downside is expected to be contained there to conclude the correction and bring up trend resumption. On the upside, above 1.1545 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.1729 high first.

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Special Report

Eurozone Sovereign Crisis Update: Sentiment Improved But May Not Sustain

Market sentiment improved in the middle of last week after European finance ministers outlined the structure of the rescue fund worth 440B euro and macroeconomic data in the US and China indicated growth remained intact despite sovereign crisis in the Eurozone. Upbeat responses in peripheral European bond auctions helped narrow yield spreads.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Apr -0.30% -0.20% 0.50%
22:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Apr -0.20% -0.40% 1.10% 1.00%
23:01 GBP BoE Quarterly Bulletin -- --
23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q2 10 7.8 4.3
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M May 0.30% -0.10% 0.60%
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y May 1.40% 0.90% 0.80%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Apr 0.80% 0.50% 1.30%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Apr 9.50% 8.70% 6.90%
12:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Apr -4.7% -5.00% -4.20%
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2175

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone partly due to renewed cross-buying against Japanese yen, suggesting the rise from 1.1876 remains in force and may bring a stronger retracement of early decline to 1.2295/00 and possibly towards 1.2327, however, near term overbought condition would prevent sharp move beyond resistance at 1.2355.

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