Saturday, June 26, 2010

Action Insight Weekly Report 6-26-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Yen Broadly Higher as Equities Reversed, Dollar Lagged Behind

Price actions in financial markets were rather mixed last week. The Japanese yen was the biggest winner on risk aversion as global equities posted sharp decline. DOW, FTSE and Nikkei all had single reversal weekly bar. DOW closed the week -2.9% lower. FTSE was down -3.87% while Nikkei was down -2.6%. However, dollar failed to ride on risk aversion and had indeed continued to trend lower after China's unpeg and a dovish FOMC statement.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY's fall from 92.87 finally resumed last week and reached as low as 89.21. Initial bias remains on the downside for 88.97 initially this week. Break will suggest that whole consolidation from 88.25 has completed and fall from 94.97 is resuming for another low below 88.25. On the upside, above 89.76 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 91.46 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Fed Delivered A Dovish Statement, Eurozone's Crisis Affected Rate Decisions

The Fed delivered a dovish FOMC statement in June, citing high unemployment, subdued inflation, modest income growth, weak housing market, tight credit, as well as 'less supportive' financial conditions are reasons for keeping the policy rate 'exceptionally low' (0-0.25%) for an 'extended period'.

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BOE Diverged on Rate Decision. One Favored Rate Hike

BOE's minutes for June's meeting unveiled one of the policymakers favored hiking the policy rate although the Committee voted 7-1 to keep the bank rate unchanged at 0.5%. This was the first time in almost 2 years that a rate hike was proposed. The members however voted unanimously for maintaining the asset purchase program unchanged at 200B pound.

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UK Pledges to Cut Deficits Aggressively

At the emergency Budget, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne delivered the toughest measures including spending cuts and tax hikes to reduce the largest fiscal shortfall among the G-20 countries. Osborne expects the measures will reduce the UK's public sector net borrowing (PSNB) to 20B pound (1.1% of GDP) in 2015/16 from 149B pound (10.1% of GDP) this year.

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PBOC Allows RMB To Appreciate. What Are The Implications On The FX Market?

People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on June 19 that it would proceed further with reform of the RMB exchange rate regime and to enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility. The pledge is welcomed by the market as demonstrated in rallies in equities, commodities and risk-sensitive currencies. China's permission to increase flexibility in RMB diminishes risks of trade tensions between China and the US should benefit economic recovery. Moreover, the move is expected to increase purchasing power in China and thus trigger more demand for commodities and other imports. However, this notion may not materialize amid further tightening in China.

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Suggested Readings

The Week in Review and Preview


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