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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Trying to Recovery after Poor Retail Sales, Sterling Hit Hard by Production DataDollar and yen are attempting a recovery in early US session after much worse than expected retail sales data from US. Headline sales dropped -1.2% in May while ex-auto sales dropped -1.1%. Among major currencies, Sterling was hardest hit, dragged down by worse than expected production data from UK. Industrial produce and manufacturing production both unexpected dropped -0.4% mom in April. PPI input dropped less than expected by -0.6% mom in May but output rose less than expected by 0.3% mom. Investors are awaiting Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne's emergency budget on June 22. Markets are concerned that steeper path of spending cut will further slow the already fragile recovery in UK. |
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GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.4575; (P) 1.4645; (R1) 1.4783; More GBP/USD's sharp fall today suggests that rebound from 1.4346 is possibly finished at 1.4757 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 1.4346 support first. Break there will also argue that whole consolidation from 1.4230 is completed and bring retest on this low. On the upside, decisive break of 1.4769 resistance will dampen our view and target 61.8% retracement of 1.5521 to 1.4230 at 1.5028 instead. |
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ECB: Rates Unchanged, GDP and Inflation Forecasts Raised, No Details on Bond Purchase ProgramThe ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% but announced to provide full allotment of 3-month LTRO with full allotment in July, August and September. Concerning economic outlook, the staff projection raised GDP forecasts for 2010 to +1% from +0.8% but lowered that for 2011 to +1.2% from +1.5%. Inflation outlook for 2010 and 2011 were revised up to +1.5% (previous: +1.5%) and +1.6% (previous: +1.5%) respectively, driven by surge in energy prices and decline in euro. Disappointedly, President Trichet did not give much detail about the bond purchase plan. |
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Stand asideDespite intra-day marginal rise to 1.2153, lack of follow through buying and current cross-inspired retreat suggest consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen but a firm break below 1.2074 (previous resistance) is needed to add credence to this view and extend fall to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.2020), break there would bring test of the lower Kumo (now at 1.1995), however, only below 1.1957 support would signal downtrend has resumed. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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