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Daily Report: Swiss Franc Soars As SNB Said Deflationary Risk Largely DisappearedSwiss Franc soars sharply higher after SNB announcement today. The Swiss National Bank maintained its expansionary policy unchanged a left target range for 3 month Libor at 0-0.75%, with target at around 0.25%. The bank played down the impact of Euro's depreciation against Swissy and said that swiss economy is being supported by growth in global demand. Deflationary risk has "largely disappeared" and SNB expects real GDP growth of around 2% in 2010. Nevertheless, the bank warned of uncertainty from tensions in financial markets with regard to public finances of some countries. SNB raised inflation forecast for 2010 and 2011 slightly to 0.9% and 1.0% respectively. Forecast for 2012 was left unchanged at 2.2%. |
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EUR/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3864; (P) 1.3918; (R1) 1.3976; More EUR/CHF's break of 1.3869 minor support suggests that recovery fro 1.3733 has completed at 1.4039 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside. Further break of 1.3733 will confirm down trend resumption and should target 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.4002 from 1.4587 at 1.3451 next. On the upside, above 1.3925 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and bring another round of recovery. But we'd expect upside to be limited below 1.4109 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. |
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UK Government Will Likely Cut More Than Labor Despite OBR Revised Down Deficit ForecastsThe Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast UK's budget deficit will narrow more than previously expected despite slower economic growth. Cyclically-adjusted, deficit forecasts are however, higher than Labour Party's projections made in March. We expect to see a sizeable degree of fiscal tightening still seems likely in the emergency Budget on June 22. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2170Despite yesterday's rebound from 1.2255, as the single currency has retreated after faltering below resistance at 1.2354, suggesting further consolidation below this temporary top would be seen and break of said support would bring retracement to 1.2168-71 (previous support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.876 to 1.2354), however, renewed buying interest emerge there and bring rebound later. previousTrade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 91.80Although the greenback fell from 91.82 to 91.09 yesterday, failure to penetrate indicated support at 91.08 and the subsequent recovery suggest further consolidation would take place and rebound to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 91.60) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 91.82 and bring another retreat. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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