Thursday, June 24, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-24-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Aversion Back as Greece CDS Makes Record High, Yen Surges

Risk aversion comes back to dominate the markets today as Greece's five-year sovereign credit default swaps jumped to new record high above 970 basis point today. Japanese yen is sharply higher with EUR/JPY breaks 110 level while USD/JPY also breaches 90 level. Dollar is mildly higher against other major currencies following yen. Sterling is also firm as supported by post BoE minutes strength as well as buying against Euro. European stocks are generally lower with major indices down around -1% while crude oil and gold are both soft.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 89.49; (P) 90.04; (R1) 90.34; More.

USD/JPY's fall extends further to as low as 89.24 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 88.97 support. Break will will suggest that whole consolidations pattern from 88.25 is finished at 92.87 already and whole fall from 94.97 is resuming for 88.13 and below. On the upside, above 89.96 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations but another fall will remain in favor as long as 91.46 resistance holds.

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Special Reports

Fed Delivered A Dovish Statement, Eurozone's Crisis Affected Rate Decisions

The Fed delivered a dovish FOMC statement in June, citing high unemployment, subdued inflation, modest income growth, weak housing market, tight credit, as well as 'less supportive' financial conditions are reasons for keeping the policy rate 'exceptionally low' (0-0.25%) for an 'extended period'.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q1 0.60% 0.50% 0.80% 0.50%
22:45 NZD GDP Y/Y Q1 1.90% 1.80% 0.40% 0.90%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) May 416.1B 626.8B 729.1B 507.7B
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y May -0.80% -1.00% -1.10%
00:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Apr 0.10% -- 0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders s.a. M/M Apr 0.90% 1.60% 5.20% 5.70%
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders May -1.10% -1.20% 2.90%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation May 0.90% 1.10% -1.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 457K 460K 472K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 80B 87B
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.8760

Despite yesterday's rebound to 0.8781, as aussie has retreated, suggesting further consolidation below this week's high of 0.8860 would be seen with downside bias for weakness to 0.8606 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8195 to 0.8860), however, a sustained breach below 0.8580/85 is needed to signal the c leg of wave B has ended and extend weakness towards 0.8500/06.

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 90.20

As the greenback has recovered after intra-day fall to 89.25, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 89.58) would bring retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 89.78), however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 90.20/30 and price should falter well below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 90.46) , bring another decline later.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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