Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-2-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Stronger on Iran Euro Sales Rumor

Dollar is slightly firmer today on rumors that Iran central bank began the process to reduce euro reserves from 55% to 20-25% and convert them to dollar and gold. The first stage of sales has started, which involves selling of 15b euros and is expected to be completed by September 22. The whole sales would amount to EUR 45b. Iran is expected to substantially decrease its oil sales in euros. While the greenback is slightly higher, buying is so far weak and dollar is basically staying in tight range against other major currencies.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.50; (P) 90.98; (R1) 91.41; More.

USD/JPY's rebound from 88.97 is still in progress and further rise would still be seen. But after all, price actions from 88.25 are viewed as consolidative in nature. Hence, we'd expect upside to be limited below 93.62 resistance and bring another fall. On the downside, below 90.53 minor support will indicate that recovery from 88.97 is finished and flip intraday bias back to the downside for 88.13/25 support zone.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y May 3.70% 2.80% 2.90%
01:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q1 0.50% 0.60% 0.90% 1.10%
01:30 AUD GDP Y/Y Q1 2.70% 2.60% 2.70%
07:15 CHF Retail Sales Y/Y Apr 1.30% 3.70% 4.50% 4.00%
08:30 GBP PMI Construction May 58.5 58 58.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Apr 0.90% 0.70% 0.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Apr 2.80% 2.60% 0.90%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y May -65.1% -- -71.10%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Apr 6.00% 5.30%
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2130

Despite intra-day rebound to 1.2273, as the single currency met renewed selling right at the Ichimoku cloud bottom and has retreated, suggesting consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen but as long as indicated support at 1.2100-10 holds, prospect of another rebound remains.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 91.00

Although the greenback rose marginally above 92.00, as price has eased from 92.08, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 91.46) is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud bottom and bring another rally later to indicated upside target at 92.15/20 (approx. 1.618 times projection of 88.95 to 90.75 measuring from 89.26) but reckon resistance at 92.97 would hold from here.

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Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Short position at 0.8390 met target at 0.8290

The single currency resumed recent decline in line with our expectation, our short position entered at 0.8390 met downside target at 0.8290 with 100 points profit, price fell to as low as 0.8280 today, however, as price has rebounded from there, suggesting consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen for retracement towards 0.8400 but only break of 0.8422/28 would signal a temporary low has been formed and bring correction to 0.8470/80.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Hold long entered at 1.0480

As the greenback found renewed buying interest above indicated support at 1.0414 and has rebounded from yesterday's low of 1.0421, retaining our bullishness for another rebound and above intra-day resistance at 1.0573 would signal the fall from 1.0854 has possibly ended and bring further gain to 1.0685/90 (approx. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0854 to 1.0414).

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