Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 6-16-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar and Yen Soft on Risk Appetite, UK Job Data Watched

Dollar and yen are generally soft against other major currencies as risk appetite dominates markets today. Japanese Nikkei rose 1.81% to close above 10000 at 10067 following 2.1% rally in DOW overnight. Crude oil extended recent rebound and is trading above 77 level for the moment. Dollar index is hovering in tight range after breaching 86 level briefly. European majors are noticeably stronger than commodity currencies with AUD and CAD still kept from the high against dollar made earlier this week. Among European majors, Swissy is the relatively stronger one and is leading another round of rally in early European session.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.40; (P) 112.22; (R1) 113.59; More.

EUR/JPY's rebound from 108.06 resumed after brief retreat and reaches as high as 113.30 so far today. Further rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 110.85 minor support holds. But after all, we'd continue to expect strong resistance at 114.13 to limit upside and bring fall resumption. Below 110.85 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 108.06 low and bring will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 next. However, strong break of 114.13 will confirm that EUR/JPY has already formed a short term bottom and should bring stronger rise towards 55 days EMA (now at 116.63) next.

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Special Report

UK Government Will Likely Cut More Than Labor Despite OBR Revised Down Deficit Forecasts

The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast UK's budget deficit will narrow more than previously expected despite slower economic growth. Cyclically-adjusted, deficit forecasts are however, higher than Labour Party's projections made in March. We expect to see a sizeable degree of fiscal tightening still seems likely in the emergency Budget on June 22.

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SNB to Keep Rates Unchanged. Focus on the Stance to Intervene CHF

The SNB will likely keep the 3-month LIBOR target at 0.25% at the meeting on Thursday. However, the market will focus on the central bank's stance on FX intervention as the euro has tumbled due to sovereign crisis in the Eurozone. The SNB may also revise up its forecasts for growth and inflation given robustness in economic data in recent months. Indeed, whether policymakers will actively implement intervention depends on the inflationary outlook.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence May 65 72 74 75
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Apr 2.10% 2.50% -3.00% -2.70%
0:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Apr 0.00% -- 0.90% 1.00%
5:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report -- --
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Change May -20.0K -27.1K
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate May 4.70% 4.70%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Apr 8.00% 8.00%
9:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) Jun -- 40.5
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M May 0.10% 0.50%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y May F 1.60% 1.60%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y May 0.80% 0.80%
12:30 USD PPI M/M May -0.50% -0.10%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y May 4.90% 5.50%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M May 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y May 1.10% 1.00%
12:30 USD Housing Starts May 650K 672K
12:30 USD Building Permits May 625K 606K
13:15 USD Industrial Production May 0.80% 0.80%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization May 74.50% 73.70%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.5M -1.8M
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.4735 or sell at 1.4950

Although current firmness suggests recent rise remains in progress and gain towards 1.4876 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5524 to 1.4228) is likely, loss of upward momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and 1.4987 (100% projection of 1.4505-1.4810 measuring from 1.4682) should hold, bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.1380

As dollar has remained under pressure after brief recovery, suggesting the decline from 1.1730 top is still in progress and further weakness to 1.1268 support, then 1.1232-35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0924 to 1.1730 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0435 to 1.1730) would be seen, however, loss of near term downward momentum would limit downside to 1.1181 (1.618 times projection of 1.1730 to 1.1426 measuring from 1.1673).

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

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