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Daily Report: Markets in Consolidation, Bernanke's Testimony WatchedMarkets generally staying in tight range in Asian today as consolidations continue. Overnight's rebound in US stocks were not carried over to Asian and Nikkei dipped to new low of 9378. However, China stocks stages a strong rebound in afternoon after Reuters reported a surge in exports in May and higher than expected new loans. Crude oil also edges close to 73 level while gold continues to correct from yesterday's record high and is trading below 1240. We'd like to point out again that DOW drew support from last week's low of 9774 overnight despite breaching it briefly and we will likely see US stocks continue to recover today. Such development might lead to more retreat in dollar and yen in the fx markets. |
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USD/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.1459; (P) 1.1550; (R1) 1.1614; More. USD/CHF is still staying in range of 1.1429 and 1.1729 for the moment as consolidations continue and intraday bias remains neutral. Below 1.1429 will bring deeper pull back but after all, we'd expect strong support from 1.1244 (38.2% retracement of 1.0434 to 1.1729 at 1.1234) to contain downside and bring up trend resumption. On the upside decisive break of 1.1729 will target 1.1963 next, 200% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1966. |
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RBNZ To Begin Its Normalizing Process In JuneCurrently, interest-rate swaps indicate an 80% chance the RBNZ will raise the cash rate by +25 bps points to 2.75% in June. The market had priced in chances of 52% on May 21 and 64% after April's meeting. Despite uncertainty in Eurozone's sovereign crisis, the hike is warranted as recent data has shown robust domestic economic growth. ECB to Maintain Rate at 1%. Focus on Clarifications of Bond Purchase and LTROsWhile the ECB will continue to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%, the focus of Thursday's meeting will be on the press conference. As this will be the first meeting after risks of sovereign crisis in the Eurozone escalated, announcement of EU/IMF's Stabilization Facility and ECB's bond purchase program, we expect to hear many questions regarding the timing and size of the bond purchase program and the central bank's 'new' gradual exit plan. ECB staff will also release updates on GDP growth and inflation. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2040Although the single currency retreated after yesterday's brief bounce to 1.2010, break of 1.1901 support is needed to signal the correction from 1.1876 has ended and bring retest of this level, below there would confirm downtrend has resumed and extend weakness to 1.1810/15 (1.236 times projection of 1.2673 to 1.2154 measuring from 1.2454) but loss of near term momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.1770/75. Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Stand asideDespite intra-day brief retreat to 1.4396, current rebound suggests further consolidation above yesterday's low at 1.4346 would be seen and test of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.4481) cannot be ruled out, break there would bring stronger rebound towards 1.4530-35 (previous resistance and the current level of the upper Kumo), however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.4563 and 1.4609 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4771 to 1.4346) would hold, bring another decline later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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