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Daily Report: BoJ to Launch JPY 3T Loan Scheme, Yen HigherThe Japanese yen is slightly higher today and is gaining momentum in early European session. Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.1% as widely expected. BoJ announced details of a JPY 3T loan scheme, which aims to get Japan out of deflation and achieve sustainable growth with price stability. The fund will be main available to private banks to lend to companies for making longer term business investments. Starting by the end of August, each participating bank could borrow a maximum of JPY 150b at the current 0.1% rate. The loan scheme will target 18 sectors including healthcare, environment and energy, tourism, science and technology as well as agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. |
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EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 111.03; (P) 111.95; (R1) 112.81; More. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, EUR/JPY's recovery from 108.06 might have completed at 112.85 already and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Break of 110.26 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 108.06 low and bring will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 next. On the upside, in case of another rise, we'd continue to expect strong resistance at 114.13 to limit upside and bring fall resumption. However, note that strong break of 114.13 resistance will argue that EUR/JPY might have formed a short term bottom and bring stronger rebound instead. |
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SNB to Keep Rates Unchanged. Focus on the Stance to Intervene CHFThe SNB will likely keep the 3-month LIBOR target at 0.25% at the meeting on Thursday. However, the market will focus on the central bank's stance on FX intervention as the euro has tumbled due to sovereign crisis in the Eurozone. The SNB may also revise up its forecasts for growth and inflation given robustness in economic data in recent months. Indeed, whether policymakers will actively implement intervention depends on the inflationary outlook. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.1500As the greenback has just rebounded after finding intra-day support at 1.1396, suggesting further consolidation above yesterday's low at 1.1350 would be seen and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud area (now a 1.1472-77) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge below 1.1512 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1673 to 1.1350) and 1.1547-50 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) should hold, bring another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2165As the single currency has retreated after rising to 1.2298 yesterday, suggesting consolidation would be seen and retracement to 1.2165-68 (approx. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1957 to 1.2298) cannot be ruled out, however, 1.2133-37 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1876 to 1.2298) should contain downside and bring another rally later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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