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Mid-Day Report: Yen Maintains Gain as Sentiments Weight Down by Worry on China Growth and Eurozone LiquidityMarket sentiments continue to be weighed down by worry on China growth and Eurozone bank liquidity. European stocks are broadly lower with major indices down over -2% at the time of writing. Japanese yen is the major winner today and rose over 2.54% against Aussie and Kiwi. Dollar managed to benefit from risk aversion and rebounds against major currencies except yen and swissy. Nevertheless, strength in the greenback is not strong even to send the dollar index through 86.42 resistance yet and we are cautiously neutral in dollar. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 109.27; (P) 110.04; (R1) 110.47; More. EUR/JPY drops to as low as 107.83 today and the break of 108.06 confirms down trend resumption. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen to 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 next. On the upside, above 109.52 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 113.40 resistance and bring fall resumption. |
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| Special Report |
Euro To Resume Weakness After Brief Rebound, ECB On Hold Until 2H11The euro has rebounded broadly since early June despite continued concerns about sovereign crisis in the Eurozone and uncertainty about the banking system. In our opinion, the rebound has been driven by well-received auctions for peripheral European bonds and the fact that the ECB has not been required to purchase a large amount of bonds in the secondary market. At the same time, squaring of extended short euro positions has also helped the currency. Market Sentiment Worsened And Peripheral Bond Yields SoaredGlobal sentiment weakened last week as disappointing macroeconomic data reignited worries over sovereign crisis in the Eurozone and its impacts on global recovery. Fitch Ratings' downgrade of a French bank S&P's warning regarding stability of Spanish as well as releases of European bank stress tests unveiled deficit problems in Europe have yet to be resolved. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 109.55Current selloff signals recent decline has resumed and retest of 108.06 is under way, break would extend weakness to 107.50 and then towards 107.00, however, as this move is viewed as wave v of recent decline, reckon downside would be limited to 106.32 (50% projection of 122.29-108.06 measuring from 113.43) and risk from there has increased for a rebound later. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.8710Despite yesterday's rebound to 0.8778, the subsequent retreat from there has revived our previous bearishness and further consolidation below 0.8860 resistance would be seen with downside bias for weakness towards 0.8500/10, however, break there is needed to confirm top has been formed as end of wave c (instead of iii of c) and bring further weakness to 0.8463 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8066 to 0.8860), then towards 0.8369 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2250Although euro has recovered after intra-day fall to 1.2176 and consolidation above this level would be seen, as early breach of 1.2209 support signals the decline from 1.2490 is still in progress, bearishness remains for further weakness to 1.2153-68 (previous support), however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.2111 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1876 to 1.2490) and another previous support at 1.2045 should hold from here. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 88.20Although dollar has recovered after intra-day fall to 88.52 and consolidation would be seen, as long as 89.00-06 (current level of the Kijun-Sen and previous support) holds, recent decline is likely to extend one more fall to 88.38 (61.8% projection of 91.48 to 89.22 measuring from 89.78), however, loss of downward momentum should limit downside and reckon support at 87.95 would hold from here, bring rebound later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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