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Daily Report: Markets Steady, Awaiting ECBAsian markets are generally lifted by solid data today. Japan Q1 GDP was finalized at 5.0% annualized rate, up from prior estimate of 4.9% and expectation of 4.2%. Household confidence rose slightly to 42.8 in May. Australian data showed more than expected 26.9k expansion in the job market in May. Unemployment rate dropped further from 5.4% to 5.2%. China exports jumped the most in six years by 48.5% yoy and trade surplus widened CNY 19.5B. Dollar is mildly lower against major currencies but the weakness is so far limited. |
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EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 108.61; (P) 109.60; (R1) 110.34; More. EUR/JPY's consolidations form 108.06 is still in progress and more sideway trading might be seen. But after all, in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited below 114.13 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 108.06 will target 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 next. |
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RBNZ Raised OCR by +25 Bps To 2.75%. Near-term Headline CPI On Tax HikesAs expected, RBNZ raised the official cash rate by 25 bps to 2.75%. This was the first time since July 2007 the central bank hiked the policy rate. The RBNZ delivered a balanced statement stressing inflation as a threat while downplaying the impact of Eurozone's sovereign crisis on domestic economy. In our opinion, the central bank's tone is less dovish that BOC' and there's chance further tightening in the coming month. ECB to Maintain Rate at 1%. Focus on Clarifications of Bond Purchase and LTROsWhile the ECB will continue to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%, the focus of Thursday's meeting will be on the press conference. As this will be the first meeting after risks of sovereign crisis in the Eurozone escalated, announcement of EU/IMF's Stabilization Facility and ECB's bond purchase program, we expect to hear many questions regarding the timing and size of the bond purchase program and the central bank's 'new' gradual exit plan. ECB staff will also release updates on GDP growth and inflation. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.1510Despite intra-day bounce to 1.1506 this morning (our short entry at 1.1510 just missed by 4 pips), the greenback has retreated sharply from there in Asia, however, break of yesterday's low at 1.1417 is needed to signal the corrective decline from 1.1730 top has resumed and bring further weakness to 1.1360/70 but reckon 1.0327 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0924 to 1.1730) would hold from here. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 91.60As the greenback has fallen after meeting renewed selling at 91.67 yesterday, suggesting the decline from 92.89 may extend weakness towards support at 90.54, break there would bring further fall towards psychological support at 90.00, however, as broad outlook is consolidative, downside would be limited to 89.71-82 (1.236 times projection of 92.89 to 90.97 measuring from 92.08 and previous support) and bring rebound later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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