Friday, June 4, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-4-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: EUR/USD Heading to 1.2 after Non-Farm Payroll Disappointment, EUR/CHF Broke 1.4

Dollar and yen surge sharply in early US session after disappointment from Non-Farm Payroll report. US job market expanded by 431k only in May, much lower than expectation of 500k. More importantly, taking out 411k. Unemployment rate dropped from 9.9% to 9.7%. Canadian data showed the economy added 24.7k jobs in May, slightly above expectation of 20k. However unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.1% versus consensus of a drop to 8.0%.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4021; (P) 1.4098; (R1) 1.4142; More

EUR/CHF dives sharply today and broke 1.4000 key support level without hesitation. The longer term down trend has resumed and initial target of 61.8% projection of 1.5138 to 1.4002 from 1.4587 at 1.3885 is already met. Short term outlook will now remain bearish as long as 1.4109 support turned resistance holds. Sustained trading below 1.3885 will target 100% projection at 1.3451.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 P 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Y/Y Q1 P 0.60% 0.50% 0.50% -2.10%
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment May 24.7K 20.0K 108.7K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate May 8.10% 8.00% 8.10%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Apr 5.40% -1.50% 12.20%
12:30 USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls May 431K 500K 290K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate May 9.70% 9.80% 9.90%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI May 59.5 58.7
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.1470

Despite intra-day brief but sharp fall to 1.1426 partly due to selloff in EUR/CHF, as the greenback is able to stage a strong rebound from there, suggesting low has been formed and consolidation with upside bias is seen for test of 1.0600-03 (current level of the upper Kumo and previous resistance), break there would signal correction from 1.1730 is over, then gain to 1.1690/00 would be seen next.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2150

As the single currency has resumed recent downtrend after meeting renewed selling at 1.2216 as investors worried about the euro-zone's sovereign debt status, price tumbled to fresh 4-year low of 1.2037, suggesting a test of psychological support at 1.2000 is underway, below would extend to 1.1950 and possibly towards 1.1900.

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