Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 6-30-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Retreats as Markets Calmed Down, Consolidations ahead

Yen retreats mildly in steady markets and market sentiments stabilized a bit. Asian equities opened lower but recovered on bargain hunting as the session went on. Crude oil stays in tight range below 76 while gold hovers around 1240 level. Dollar index lost momentum ahead of 86.42 resistance and turned sideway. Markets might enter into consolidation phase first but beware of volatility from US ADP employment and Canada GDP.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8398; (P) 0.8559; (R1) 0.8647; More

AUD/USD's break of 0.8505 support suggests that rebound from 0.8079 has completed. Also, the three wave consolidation from 0.8066 might have completed at 0.8858 too, just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 0.9380 to 0.8066. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside and further decline would now be seen to retest 0.8066/8079 support first. On the upside, above 0.8595 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again.

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Special Report

Euro To Resume Weakness After Brief Rebound, ECB On Hold Until 2H11

The euro has rebounded broadly since early June despite continued concerns about sovereign crisis in the Eurozone and uncertainty about the banking system. In our opinion, the rebound has been driven by well-received auctions for peripheral European bonds and the fact that the ECB has not been required to purchase a large amount of bonds in the secondary market. At the same time, squaring of extended short euro positions has also helped the currency.

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Market Sentiment Worsened And Peripheral Bond Yields Soared

Global sentiment weakened last week as disappointing macroeconomic data reignited worries over sovereign crisis in the Eurozone and its impacts on global recovery. Fitch Ratings' downgrade of a French bank S&P's warning regarding stability of Spanish as well as releases of European bank stress tests unveiled deficit problems in Europe have yet to be resolved.

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Economic Indicators Update


GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Jun -19 -19 -18
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Jun 53.9 -- 54.7
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y May -4.60% 5.00% 0.60%
5:00 JPY Annualized Housing Starts May 0.737M 0.810M 0.793M
6:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices M/M Jun 0.10% 0.30% 0.50%
6:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices Y/Y Jun 8.70% 9.00% 9.80%
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Jun -25K -45K
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Jun 7.70% 7.70%
8:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q1 F 0.30% 0.30%
8:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q1 F -0.20% -0.20%
8:30 GBP Current Account (GBP) Q1 -4.5B -1.7B
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jun 1.50% 1.60%
9:30 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator Jun 2.14 2.16
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Jun 60K 55K
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Apr 0.10% 0.60%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Jun 59 59.7
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.9M 2.0M
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0930

Despite yesterday's marginal fall to 1.0803, lack of follow through selling suggests consolidation would be seen and recovery to Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0852) is likely, above would bring retracement to yesterday's high at 1.0903, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.0933) and bring another decline.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 89.15

As dollar has recovered after falling to 88.29 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and retracement to 88.90/95 is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 89.17) and bring another decline towards chart support at 87.95.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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