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Mid-Day Report: Euro Rebounds after Positive ECB Tender But Lost Momentum after Disappointing ADPEuro recovered strongly earlier today after ECB said that EUR 131.9b loan will be provided to banks in the three-month tender, less than half of markets estimate of EUR 300b. The lower than expected amount was viewed as an encouraging sign that banks in Europe are not that desperate in need for liquidity. Also, there were additional technical support from rebound in EUR/GBP. Nevertheless, Euro lost momentum in early US session after ADP private employment report missed expectation and showed merely 13k gain in June. Canadian GDP also disappointed by being flat in April. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 88.11; (P) 88.76; (R1) 89.24; More. USD/JPY recovers mildly today but after all, intraday bias remains on the downside for 88.13/25 support zone. Break there will confirm our bearish view that whole fall from 94.97 is resuming for a test on 84.81 low. On the upside, above 89.45 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 90.85 resistance and bring fall resumption. |
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| Special Report |
Euro To Resume Weakness After Brief Rebound, ECB On Hold Until 2H11The euro has rebounded broadly since early June despite continued concerns about sovereign crisis in the Eurozone and uncertainty about the banking system. In our opinion, the rebound has been driven by well-received auctions for peripheral European bonds and the fact that the ECB has not been required to purchase a large amount of bonds in the secondary market. At the same time, squaring of extended short euro positions has also helped the currency. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 109.55Although the single currency has recovered after falling to 107.30 yesterday and consolidation would be seen, upside should be limited to 109.50/55 (previous support turned resistance) and bring another decline in wave v of recent decline towards 107.00, however, as this final leg should be limited to 106.32 (50% projection of 122.29-108.06 measuring from 113.43) and risk from there has increased for a rebound later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5055Despite intra-day brief bounce from 1.4981 to 1.5062/65, as price did falter below the Ichimoku cloud top as suggested in our previous update, retaining our view that further consolidation below temporary top at 1.5130 would be seen and midl downside bias remains for correction to 1.4961 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4688 to 1.5130), below would extend weakness towards 1.4909 (50% Fibonacci retracement) which is likely to hold on first testing. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 89.15Although dollar's recovery after yesterday's fall to 88.29 suggests further consolidation above this level would be seen and retracement to 88.90/95 cannot be ruled out, renewed selling interest should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 89.15) and bring another decline towards chart support at 87.95. Having said that, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon downside would be limited to 87.50 and 87.00 should remain intact. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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